MWG 2026–2028 Outlook: ICT Drives Growth, DMX Anchors Earnings, BHX Expands Margins
28-03-2026, 09:45:47Introduction: MWG is moving into a new growth structure
If MWG is viewed merely as a post-downturn recovery story, that reading is no longer sufficient. What matters more in the 2026–2028 period is that the company is forming a more balanced and higher-quality growth structure: DMX remains the core earnings pillar, while BHX is increasingly becoming a meaningful contributor to consolidated profit growth. In other words, MWG is not simply rising because the market backdrop has improved, but because its two major engines are both moving in a favorable direction.
Under the current forecast set, MWG’s consolidated revenue is expected to rise from VND 156,458bn in 2025 to VND 189,125bn in 2026, VND 218,937bn in 2027, and VND 249,940bn in 2028. Net profit is projected to increase from VND 7,037bn to VND 8,861bn, VND 11,116bn, and VND 13,191bn, respectively. Net margin is also forecast to improve steadily from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, 5.1% in 2027, and 5.3% in 2028. Over the 2025–2028 period, MWG’s net profit implies a CAGR of roughly 23% per year. This suggests that MWG’s future growth will come not only from top-line expansion, but from a clearly improving internal earnings structure.
Table 1. MWG Consolidated Forecast
|
Metric |
2025A |
2026F |
2027F |
2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net revenue (VND bn) |
156,458 |
189,125 |
218,937 |
249,940 |
|
Net profit (VND bn) |
7,037 |
8,861 |
11,116 |
13,191 |
|
Net profit growth |
89% |
26% |
25% |
19% |
|
Net margin |
4.5% |
4.7% |
5.1% |
5.3% |
1. Industry backdrop: ICT is the most important growth driver in 2026
To understand MWG’s growth logic, it is necessary to start with the industry backdrop. Vietnam’s consumer technology market is projected to grow by 12.2% in 2026, but that growth is not expected to be evenly distributed across all product categories. ICT is the key driver of 2026, especially mobile phones, laptops, tablets, and other information and communications technology products.
The ICT recovery is supported by several factors at once: improving consumer confidence, the Windows 11 upgrade cycle, demand for AI-enabled devices, and the replacement cycle for products purchased during the pandemic period. This point matters greatly because ICT is exactly the segment to which DMX is most exposed and from which it can benefit most directly. After 2026, as ICT demand gradually normalizes, small household appliances are expected to become a more prominent growth driver in 2027–2028.
That means, if the story is arranged in the correct sequence, ICT is the story of 2026, while small appliances become the story that extends growth in the years after. At the same time, tighter tax enforcement on small retailers, gray-market goods, and informal sales channels is eroding their price advantage. In such a market, a large-scale retail chain with strong brand equity and a complete service ecosystem like DMX still has ample room to continue gaining share.
2. DMX: the direct beneficiary of the ICT cycle and still the largest earnings pillar
Across the entire MWG system, DMX remains the decisive earnings driver. Current projections show DMX net revenue reaching VND 123,721bn in 2026, VND 135,919bn in 2027, and VND 148,144bn in 2028. Corresponding net profit is projected at VND 7,550bn, VND 8,720bn, and VND 10,249bn.
Table 2. Key DMX Forecasts
|
Metric |
2026F |
2027F |
2028F |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Net revenue (VND bn) |
123,721 |
135,919 |
148,144 |
|
Net profit (VND bn) |
7,550 |
8,720 |
10,249 |
|
EBIT DMX/TGDĐ (VND bn) |
8,192 |
9,337 |
10,675 |
|
Net margin |
6.1% |
6.4% |
6.9% |
|
DMX market share |
46.7% |
47.3% |
- |
The key point is that DMX’s growth is not driven solely by market recovery. The segment is benefiting simultaneously from three layers of support. First, ICT is recovering, and that is the single most important driver for 2026. Second, market share continues to expand, after already reaching roughly 45.3% in 2025. Third, operating quality has improved following restructuring, allowing margins to rise gradually rather than merely seeing sales rebound.
DMX net margin is projected to improve from around 5.8% in 2025 to 6.1% in 2026, 6.4% in 2027, and 6.9% in 2028. This indicates that the story is no longer just about revenue bouncing back, but about growth accompanied by better earnings quality. In a year when ICT is the leading category, DMX’s role within the broader MWG story becomes even more pronounced: it remains the segment that generates the bulk of earnings and underpins the group’s cash flow base.
3. BHX: from a large-revenue segment to a real profit growth engine
If DMX provides the earnings base, then BHX is the segment that creates the greatest difference in MWG’s consolidated growth trajectory. It is the fastest-changing business within the group’s structure.
BHX net revenue is projected to rise from VND 46,899bn in 2025 to VND 62,851bn in 2026, VND 79,539bn in 2027, and VND 97,313bn in 2028. Net profit is forecast to increase from VND 750bn to VND 1,729bn, VND 2,918bn, and VND 3,565bn. Profit growth rates are therefore 131%, 69%, and 22%, implying a roughly 68% CAGR over 2025–2028.
Table 3. Key BHX Forecasts
|
Metric |
2025A |
2026F |
2027F |
2028F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net revenue (VND bn) |
46,899 |
62,851 |
79,539 |
97,313 |
|
Net profit (VND bn) |
750 |
1,729 |
2,918 |
3,565 |
|
Net margin |
1.6% |
2.8% |
3.7% |
3.7% |
|
Ending store count |
2,559 |
3,559 |
4,559 |
5,559 |
|
Revenue/store/month (VND bn) |
1.53 |
1.62 |
1.54 |
1.51 |
|
OPEX/revenue |
22.8% |
21.3% |
20.2% |
20.4% |
|
EBIT (VND bn) |
561 |
1,756 |
3,148 |
3,758 |
What makes this forecast credible is that it is not built on overly aggressive store-level revenue assumptions. BHX is assumed to open 1,000 new stores per year throughout 2026–2028, lifting the year-end store count from 2,559 to 5,559. Meanwhile, average monthly revenue per store actually declines from VND 1.62bn in 2026 to VND 1.51bn in 2028, as rapid expansion dilutes the average with newer stores. That suggests the forecast already embeds a degree of caution.
4. The key BHX point: actual margin expansion accelerated sharply in 2025
What makes BHX especially compelling is not just the number of new stores, but the fact that margin improvement already became very visible in 2025. This is important because it explains why the assumption of a 2.8% net margin in 2026 is grounded in operating reality rather than being a purely optimistic stretch.
Looking at the actual trend, BHX net margin rose from roughly 0.9% in H1/2025 to around 1.7% in Q3/2025, and by Q4/2025 the chain generated about VND 293bn in net profit, equivalent to a quarterly net margin of roughly 2.34%. This progression shows that BHX is no longer growing only because it is opening more stores. It has clearly entered a phase in which operating efficiency is improving quarter by quarter.
From a cost structure perspective, BHX gross margin remains fairly stable in the forecast period at around 24.1%–24.3%, meaning the larger source of earnings improvement is not aggressive gross margin expansion, but rather the gradual decline in operating expenses as a percentage of revenue. In other words, BHX is entering a clearer operating leverage zone: logistics are improving, rent and depreciation are being absorbed over a larger revenue base, and selling and administrative costs continue to decline on a per-revenue basis.
Another important point is that newly opened stores in the Central region are showing strong economics, with break-even periods of only around 3–6 months. That helps explain why BHX can continue expanding rapidly while still lifting margins. For that reason, the assumption of a 2.8% net margin in 2026 does not represent an excessive jump from the end-2025 base, but rather a reasonable extension of a margin improvement trend that had already become visible over the prior year.
5. Putting DMX and BHX together: the MWG picture becomes much clearer
MWG’s greatest strength in 2026–2028 is its two-layer growth model. The first layer is DMX: large scale, solid growth, improving margins, and strong cash generation. The second layer is BHX: much faster profit growth, supported by both aggressive expansion and better operating efficiency.
When these two segments are viewed together, it becomes much easier to understand why MWG’s consolidated profit is projected to grow faster than revenue. In 2026, consolidated revenue is expected to rise by about 21% while profit grows 26%. In 2027, revenue grows 16% but profit rises 25%. In 2028, revenue grows 14% and profit 19%. This is exactly what a company looks like when it enters a margin expansion phase: a core business continues to generate better earnings, while a newer growth business starts making a visibly larger contribution to group-wide profits.
Conclusion: ICT lifts 2026, but BHX extends the growth cycle
If the full MWG story for 2026–2028 must be reduced to one simple framework, it would be this:
-
ICT is the dominant driver in 2026, and it is the factor that most directly lifts the outlook for DMX.
-
DMX remains the largest earnings base, supported by the ICT cycle, expanding market share, and better margins.
-
BHX is the fastest-growing segment, with actual margin improvement already accelerating sharply in 2025 and with a solid basis for further expansion through 2026–2028.
-
MWG consolidated results are where these two engines meet: DMX anchors profitability, while BHX opens a new leg of growth.
In short, MWG is not growing simply because market conditions are better. It is growing because its internal earnings structure is becoming stronger and more attractive, and that is the most important part of the MWG story for 2026–2028.