CSM

Công nghiệp Cao su Miền Nam ·HOSE ·2026Q1

▼▼ Declining sharply

Capital efficiency remains weak ROE 2.41%, +0.03pp YoY
Price
12,500
Latest close
04 Jun 2026
P/E 21.19x
P/B 0.93x
EPS 590
BVPS 13,415
ROE 4.4%
ROA 1.7%
Profit Margin 1.5%
Asset Turnover 1.19x
Equity Mult. 2.53x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, CSM is declining across multiple metrics versus the same period, suggesting current pressure is not coming from just one side — profit momentum has been slowing across consecutive periods. More notably, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this is pressure that needs close monitoring.

TTM REVENUE
VND 4,170bn
−9.1%YoY
NET MARGIN
1.47%
−0.2ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
VND 61bn
−19.6%YoY
CFO / Net Income
-0.22x
negative cash flow vs profit
Metric Q1'26 Q4'25 Q3'25 Q2'25 Q1'25 Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23
Revenue 1,105.3 931.2 1,027.7 1,106.0 1,021.3 1,192.4 1,107.5 1,265.1 1,147.2 1,278.7 1,352.7 1,368.4
Growth +19% -9% -7% +8% -14% +8% -12% +10% -10% -5% -1%
Net Income 26.0 -13.2 26.6 21.7 19.4 12.8 22.7 21.1 19.7 23.5 19.0 12.3
Net Margin 2.35% -1.41% 2.59% 1.96% 1.90% 1.07% 2.05% 1.67% 1.71% 1.84% 1.41% 0.90%

Drivers of CSM's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Administrative expenses ↓ 54.8bn
Finance costs ↓ 25.9bn
Selling expenses ↓ 25.6bn
Gross profit ↓ 49.5bn
Financial income ↓ 46.8bn
Other profit ↓ 18.0bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 22.5bn
Other profit ↑ 2.6bn
Selling expenses ↓ 1.7bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 6.3bn
Finance costs ↑ 5.0bn
Tax ↑ 4.5bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2025Q1 5.6% = 1.7% × 1.30 × 2.60
2026Q1 4.4% = 1.5% × 1.19 × 2.53

ROE fell from 5.6% to 4.4% — all three components weakened, with asset turnover being the main drag.

Net margin: 1.5% -0.2pp Asset turnover: 1.19x -0.11x Leverage: 2.53x -0.07x

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin stands at 1.47%, broadly flat versus the same period. Supportive factors and pressure points are offsetting one another.

Margin is nearly flat but the underlying components are moving — this is a transitional phase, more time is needed to see the real trend.

Profitability trend

Net Margin 1.47% −0.2pp
Gross Margin 13.15% +0.1pp
SG&A / Revenue 10.05% −0.8pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Is capital being used efficiently?

Evaluate capital, asset, and working-capital efficiency.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC stands at 2.41%, broadly flat versus the same period. That translates to 2.41 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. NOPAT margin steady, but capital turnover fell 0.11x, with invested capital holding roughly steady — the two factors are offsetting each other, keeping overall ROIC nearly unchanged.

Overall ROIC is flat while internal components are moving — watch which side becomes dominant in coming periods.

Watchpoints

ROIC remains low

ROIC is currently 2.41% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

ROIC 2.41% +0.0pp
NOPAT Margin 1.57% +0.1pp
Capital Turnover 1.53x −0.11x
Average Invested Capital 2,717.7bn −67.7bn

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated, requiring monitoring — liabilities at 1.80x equity, net debt at 1.15x equity.

Inventory ended the period at 1,323.3bn, roughly 34.6% of total assets.

Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 138.4bn of cash, mainly because of higher inventories and lower payables. Part of that drag was offset by lower receivables.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables decreased → higher CFO: +147.5bn
Inventories increased → lower CFO: −205.6bn
Payables decreased → lower CFO: −80.3bn

Working Capital Efficiency

Cash conversion cycle lengthened by 7.6 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 15.5 days, DSO fell 8.3 days, and DPO fell 0.3 days.

Working capital cycle lengthened mainly due to slower inventory turnover — more capital is being tied up in inventory.

Watchpoints

Cash conversion cycle remains stretched

CCC stands at 145.3 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.

Inventory turnover is slowing

DIO increased by +15.5 days, suggesting more capital is being tied up in inventories.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables 57.6 days −8.3 days
Inventory 120.5 days +15.5 days
Payables 32.7 days −0.3 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 145.3 days +7.6 days

Is financial risk significant?

Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 171.7bn due to capex of 158.4bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 1.15x and interest coverage only at 0.90x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 94.9% of total debt, cash equals 13.2% of debt, and total debt stands at 1,840.4bn.

Watchpoints

Net leverage is elevated

Net debt / equity stands at 1.15x, increasing balance-sheet pressure.

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is 0.90x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 1.15x +0.38x
Interest Coverage 0.90x +0.28x
Cash / Debt 13.2% +1.6pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 94.9% −1.4pp
CFO / NI -0.22x −9.86x

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Cash Flow

With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 537.3bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -336.2bn.

Post-investment cash flow was positive +201.0bn. Financing cash flow was negative +97.6bn.

CFO / net income was -0.22x.

After spending +158.4bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −171.7bn.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

CFO TTM 13.4bn −746.7bn
Cash Capex 158.4bn +95.2bn
FCF TTM −171.7bn −841.9bn

Investment Takeaway

The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The brighter spot is earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at -0.22x. The main risk still sits in capital efficiency remains weak, with ROIC at 2.4%.

Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at -0.22x.

Key risk: Capital efficiency remains weak.

Statement Data

Item 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Net Revenue
4,142.9 4,712.2 5,234.9 5,320.6 4,839.5
Cost of Goods Sold
3,609.7 4,087.2 4,677.7 4,731.1 0.0
Gross Profit
533.2 625.0 557.2 589.6 550.1
Financial Expenses
88.3 128.6 159.8 187.1 -123.6
Selling Expenses
196.2 213.8 200.1 173.7 -208.4
General and Administrative Expenses
223.2 295.7 186.4 166.0 -173.3
Operating Profit
71.4 71.0 62.4 107.4 68.1
Profit Before Tax
61.3 89.1 70.2 101.7 55.2
Net Income
42.6 72.1 60.4 79.2 42.2
Profit Attributable to Parent
42.6 72.1 60.4 79.2 42.2
Earnings per Share
411.00 433.00 384.00 554.00 406.91

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