SRC

Cao su Sao Vàng ·HOSE ·2026Q1

▼▼ Declining sharply

Margins remain under pressure Net margin 2.03%, −9.14pp YoY
Price
53,500
Latest close
03 Jun 2026
P/E 47.92x
P/B 2.60x
EPS 1,117
BVPS 20,551
ROE 5.4%
ROA 2.5%
Profit Margin 2.0%
Asset Turnover 1.22x
Equity Mult. 2.18x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, SRC is holding revenue at an acceptable level, but margins are eroding visibly — margins have been compressing consistently over multiple periods. More notably, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this is pressure that needs close monitoring.

TTM REVENUE
VND 1,541bn
+38.3%YoY
NET MARGIN
2.03%
−9.1ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
VND 31bn
−74.8%YoY
CFO / Net Income
-2.32x
negative cash flow vs profit
Metric Q1'26 Q4'25 Q3'25 Q2'25 Q1'25 Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23
Revenue 345.9 540.0 279.2 375.5 261.1 240.0 284.6 328.3 174.9 488.4 232.0 275.6
Growth -36% +93% -26% +44% +9% -16% -13% +88% -64% +110% -16%
Net Income 9.4 7.2 6.6 8.1 2.7 2.2 5.7 113.9 3.3 13.1 6.1 6.2
Net Margin 2.72% 1.34% 2.37% 2.15% 1.03% 0.90% 2.00% 34.69% 1.91% 2.68% 2.62% 2.23%

Drivers of SRC's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to weaker other profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Tax ↓ 60.8bn
Other profit ↓ 154.7bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 8.4bn
Administrative expenses ↓ 2.6bn
Finance costs ↑ 2.2bn
Selling expenses ↑ 1.0bn
Financial income ↓ 0.7bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2025Q1 24.3% = 11.2% × 0.79 × 2.76
2026Q1 5.4% = 2.0% × 1.22 × 2.18

ROE fell from 24.3% to 5.4% — leverage weakened the most, though asset turnover still provided support.

Net margin: 2.0% -9.1pp Asset turnover: 1.22x +0.44x Leverage: 2.18x -0.58x

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin fell to 2.03%, losing 9.1pp. The main pressure is Gross margin fell 3.2pp, outweighing the improvement in SG&A / Revenue fell 2.6pp (with lingering pressure from Other profit / Revenue fell 14.1pp and Net financial result / Revenue fell 0.1pp).

The pressure comes from non-core items while core operations hold their rhythm — margin has a basis to recover once this factor passes.

Profitability trend

Net Margin 2.03% −9.1pp
Gross Margin 9.89% −3.2pp
SG&A / Revenue 6.17% −2.6pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Is capital being used efficiently?

Evaluate capital, asset, and working-capital efficiency.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC edged up to 2.60%, rising 0.3pp. That translates to 2.60 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. The main driver is capital turnover rose 0.32x — the business is generating more revenue per unit of capital, with NOPAT margin narrowed 0.2pp; while invested capital rose by 95bn.

Capital turnover improved — a positive signal on asset efficiency, but with ROIC still low, NOPAT margin also needs to lift in coming periods to produce meaningful returns.

Watchpoints

ROIC remains low

ROIC is currently 2.60% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

ROIC 2.60% +0.3pp
NOPAT Margin 1.63% −0.2pp
Capital Turnover 1.60x +0.32x
Average Invested Capital 962.4bn +95.1bn

Balance Sheet

Capital structure is balanced — liabilities at 1.36x equity, net debt at 0.75x equity.

Inventory ended the period at 270.4bn, roughly 20.2% of total assets.

Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 109.8bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables and lower payables. Part of that drag was offset by lower inventories.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables increased → lower CFO: −121.3bn
Inventories decreased → higher CFO: +56.3bn
Payables decreased → lower CFO: −44.7bn

Working Capital Efficiency

Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 29.6 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 44.6 days, DSO fell 11.8 days, and DPO fell 26.7 days.

Improvement comes mainly from faster inventory turnover — watch whether this trend persists in coming periods.

Watchpoints

Cash conversion cycle remains stretched

CCC stands at 132.0 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables 89.5 days −11.8 days
Inventory 60.5 days −44.6 days
Payables 18.0 days −26.7 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 132.0 days −29.6 days

Is financial risk significant?

Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 84.5bn due to capex of 11.9bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 0.75x and interest coverage only at 1.14x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 99.5% of total debt, cash equals 5.2% of debt, and total debt stands at 459.0bn.

Watchpoints

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is 1.14x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Short-term refinancing pressure is meaningful

Short-term debt accounts for 99.5% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 0.75x +0.17x
Interest Coverage 1.14x −0.19x
Cash / Debt 5.2% −0.8pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 99.5% −0.0pp
CFO / NI -2.32x +0.72x

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow reached -187.5bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -8.0bn.

Post-investment cash flow was negative +195.5bn. Financing cash flow was positive +197.5bn.

CFO / net income was -2.32x.

After spending +11.9bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −84.5bn.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

CFO TTM 72.6bn +304.7bn
Cash Capex 11.9bn +8.6bn
FCF TTM −84.5bn +296.1bn

Investment Takeaway

The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with margins remain under pressure remaining the main constraint, with net margin down 9.1 pp. The next watchpoint is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is 20.0%. The main offsetting support comes from cash generation.

Improvement: cash generation is recovering, with trailing-12M FCF improving by 296.1bn versus the same period last year.

Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for 20.0% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at -2.32x.

Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at 2.03% after a 9.1pp decline versus the same period last year.

Statement Data

Item 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Net Revenue
1,455.8 1,027.8 1,197.8 915.3 955.7
Cost of Goods Sold
1,311.9 881.7 1,032.5 753.0 0.0
Gross Profit
143.9 146.1 165.3 162.3 175.7
Financial Expenses
25.6 24.3 21.0 16.8 -14.8
Selling Expenses
30.6 35.5 33.7 45.3 -45.6
General and Administrative Expenses
66.1 63.6 74.7 67.4 -75.2
Operating Profit
24.7 28.0 37.7 34.4 52.6
Profit Before Tax
32.3 190.7 39.1 38.2 52.4
Net Income
24.6 151.6 29.4 27.7 40.0
Profit Attributable to Parent
24.6 151.6 29.4 27.7 40.0
Earnings per Share
877.00 5,403.00 1,048.00 989.00 1,426.82

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