SRC
Cao su Sao Vàng ·HOSE ·2026Q1
▼▼ Declining sharply
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, SRC is holding revenue at an acceptable level, but margins are eroding visibly — margins have been compressing consistently over multiple periods. More notably, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this is pressure that needs close monitoring.
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q4'25 | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q2'23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 345.9 | 540.0 | 279.2 | 375.5 | 261.1 | 240.0 | 284.6 | 328.3 | 174.9 | 488.4 | 232.0 | 275.6 |
| Growth | -36% | +93% | -26% | +44% | +9% | -16% | -13% | +88% | -64% | +110% | -16% | — |
| Net Income | 9.4 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 5.7 | 113.9 | 3.3 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 6.2 |
| Net Margin | 2.72% | 1.34% | 2.37% | 2.15% | 1.03% | 0.90% | 2.00% | 34.69% | 1.91% | 2.68% | 2.62% | 2.23% |
Drivers of SRC's profit
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to weaker other profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE fell from 24.3% to 5.4% — leverage weakened the most, though asset turnover still provided support.
Is the profit sustainable?
Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin fell to 2.03%, losing 9.1pp. The main pressure is Gross margin fell 3.2pp, outweighing the improvement in SG&A / Revenue fell 2.6pp (with lingering pressure from Other profit / Revenue fell 14.1pp and Net financial result / Revenue fell 0.1pp).
The pressure comes from non-core items while core operations hold their rhythm — margin has a basis to recover once this factor passes.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is capital being used efficiently?
Evaluate capital, asset, and working-capital efficiency.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
ROIC edged up to 2.60%, rising 0.3pp. That translates to 2.60 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. The main driver is capital turnover rose 0.32x — the business is generating more revenue per unit of capital, with NOPAT margin narrowed 0.2pp; while invested capital rose by 95bn.
Capital turnover improved — a positive signal on asset efficiency, but with ROIC still low, NOPAT margin also needs to lift in coming periods to produce meaningful returns.
Watchpoints
ROIC is currently 2.60% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Balance Sheet
Capital structure is balanced — liabilities at 1.36x equity, net debt at 0.75x equity.
Inventory ended the period at 270.4bn, roughly 20.2% of total assets.
Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 109.8bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables and lower payables. Part of that drag was offset by lower inventories.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Working Capital Efficiency
Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 29.6 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 44.6 days, DSO fell 11.8 days, and DPO fell 26.7 days.
Improvement comes mainly from faster inventory turnover — watch whether this trend persists in coming periods.
Watchpoints
CCC stands at 132.0 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is financial risk significant?
Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 84.5bn due to capex of 11.9bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.
Leverage & Liquidity
Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 0.75x and interest coverage only at 1.14x.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 99.5% of total debt, cash equals 5.2% of debt, and total debt stands at 459.0bn.
Watchpoints
Interest coverage is 1.14x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.
Short-term debt accounts for 99.5% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow reached -187.5bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -8.0bn.
Post-investment cash flow was negative +195.5bn. Financing cash flow was positive +197.5bn.
CFO / net income was -2.32x.
After spending +11.9bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −84.5bn.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Investment Takeaway
The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with margins remain under pressure remaining the main constraint, with net margin down 9.1 pp. The next watchpoint is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is 20.0%. The main offsetting support comes from cash generation.
Improvement: cash generation is recovering, with trailing-12M FCF improving by 296.1bn versus the same period last year.
Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for 20.0% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at -2.32x.
Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at 2.03% after a 9.1pp decline versus the same period last year.
Statement Data
| Item | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
1,455.8 | 1,027.8 | 1,197.8 | 915.3 | 955.7 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
1,311.9 | 881.7 | 1,032.5 | 753.0 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
143.9 | 146.1 | 165.3 | 162.3 | 175.7 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
25.6 | 24.3 | 21.0 | 16.8 | -14.8 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
30.6 | 35.5 | 33.7 | 45.3 | -45.6 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
66.1 | 63.6 | 74.7 | 67.4 | -75.2 |
|
Operating Profit
|
24.7 | 28.0 | 37.7 | 34.4 | 52.6 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
32.3 | 190.7 | 39.1 | 38.2 | 52.4 |
|
Net Income
|
24.6 | 151.6 | 29.4 | 27.7 | 40.0 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
24.6 | 151.6 | 29.4 | 27.7 | 40.0 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
877.00 | 5,403.00 | 1,048.00 | 989.00 | 1,426.82 |
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