HCD

Đầu tư Sản xuất và Thương mại HCD ·HOSE ·2026Q1

▼▼ Declining sharply

Capital efficiency remains weak ROE 3.58%, −1.22pp YoY
Price
6,400
Latest close
04 Jun 2026
P/E 10.27x
P/B 0.46x
EPS 623
BVPS 13,779
ROE 4.6%
ROA 2.7%
Profit Margin 2.8%
Asset Turnover 0.94x
Equity Mult. 1.74x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, HCD is declining across multiple metrics versus the same period, suggesting current pressure is not coming from just one side — margins have been compressing consistently over multiple periods. More notably, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this is pressure that needs close monitoring.

TTM REVENUE
VND 819bn
−4.0%YoY
NET MARGIN
2.81%
−0.7ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
VND 23bn
−23.0%YoY
CFO / Net Income
-3.43x
negative cash flow vs profit
Metric Q1'26 Q4'25 Q3'25 Q2'25 Q1'25 Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23
Revenue 205.9 228.4 198.7 186.2 177.0 202.1 248.6 225.8 192.8 258.4 183.3 240.5
Growth -10% +15% +7% +5% -12% -19% +10% +17% -25% +41% -24%
Net Income 7.4 6.3 3.5 5.9 8.0 5.2 8.3 8.4 14.3 22.6 12.8 8.4
Net Margin 3.57% 2.76% 1.76% 3.16% 4.54% 2.55% 3.34% 3.73% 7.40% 8.75% 6.97% 3.50%

Drivers of HCD's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Tax ↓ 2.0bn
Finance costs ↓ 1.9bn
Financial income ↑ 1.0bn
Gross profit ↓ 8.7bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 1.9bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Financial income ↑ 3.2bn
Tax ↓ 0.2bn
Selling expenses ↓ 0.1bn
Gross profit ↓ 3.9bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 0.2bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2025Q1 6.3% = 3.5% × 1.04 × 1.71
2026Q1 4.6% = 2.8% × 0.94 × 1.74

ROE fell from 6.3% to 4.6% — asset turnover weakened the most, though leverage still provided support.

Net margin: 2.8% -0.7pp Asset turnover: 0.94x -0.10x Leverage: 1.74x +0.02x

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin narrowed to 2.81%, falling 0.7pp. The main pressure comes from Gross margin fell 0.8pp and SG&A / Revenue rose 0.3pp (with additional support from Net financial result / Revenue rose 0.3pp).

The pressure comes from core operations — this is a concerning type of decline, not a one-off movement.

Profitability trend

Net Margin 2.81% −0.7pp
Gross Margin 4.79% −0.8pp
SG&A / Revenue 0.82% +0.3pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency is declining — check whether the drag is from margins or turnover.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC narrowed to 3.58%, falling 1.2pp. That translates to 3.58 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 0.6pp and capital turnover fell 0.12x, with invested capital holding roughly steady — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.

Pressure came from the margin side — core operations are weakening, not just a temporary asset-management issue.

Watchpoints

ROIC remains low

ROIC is currently 3.58% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

ROIC 3.58% −1.2pp
NOPAT Margin 2.81% −0.6pp
Capital Turnover 1.28x −0.12x
Average Invested Capital 642.4bn +28.6bn

Balance Sheet

ROIC declined — the balance sheet shows how capital is being deployed. Capital structure is conservative with low leverage — liabilities at 0.61x equity, net debt at 0.31x equity.

Inventory ended the period at 273.4bn, roughly 33.9% of total assets.

Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 107.7bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables. Part of that drag was offset by lower inventories and higher payables.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables increased → lower CFO: −152.0bn
Inventories decreased → higher CFO: +32.9bn
Payables increased → higher CFO: +11.4bn

Working Capital Efficiency

Cash conversion cycle improved by 0.0 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 0.7 days, DSO rose 11.8 days, and DPO rose 12.5 days.

Working capital cycle is flat — components are offsetting each other.

Watchpoints

Cash conversion cycle remains stretched

CCC stands at 144.4 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.

Receivables collection is slowing

DSO increased by +11.8 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables 78.4 days +11.8 days
Inventory 142.9 days +0.7 days
Payables 77.0 days +12.5 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 144.4 days −0.0 days

Is financial risk significant?

Check leverage, liquidity, and cash-flow conversion.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage looks fairly comfortable, with net debt / equity at 0.31x and interest coverage at 4.04x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 4.7% of debt, and total debt stands at 166.3bn.

Watchpoints

Short-term refinancing pressure is meaningful

Short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.

Cash buffer is thin relative to debt

Cash / debt stands at 4.7%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 0.31x +0.05x
Interest Coverage 4.04x −0.07x
Cash / Debt 4.7% −23.3pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 100.0% 0.0pp
CFO / NI -3.43x −4.61x

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow reached -59.7bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of 38.0bn.

Post-investment cash flow was negative +21.7bn. Financing cash flow was negative +33.6bn.

CFO / net income was -3.43x.

Track how much investment can be funded internally from operating cash flow.

Cash capex or FCF data is incomplete, so the cash-conversion view is only partial.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

CFO TTM 79.0bn −114.2bn
Cash Capex
FCF TTM

Investment Takeaway

The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with capital efficiency remains weak remaining the main constraint, with ROIC at 3.6%. The next watchpoint is cash generation still needs confirmation. The main offsetting support comes from earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at -3.43x.

Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at -3.43x.

Watchpoint: Cash generation still needs confirmation.

Key risk: Capital efficiency remains weak.

Statement Data

Item 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Net Revenue
790.2 869.3 913.0 744.5 732.5
Cost of Goods Sold
746.9 815.2 843.8 697.7 0.0
Gross Profit
43.3 54.1 69.2 46.8 58.4
Financial Expenses
11.2 16.2 15.8 10.3 -4.8
Selling Expenses
0.9 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.0
General and Administrative Expenses
5.3 4.0 1.5 2.8 -2.2
Operating Profit
26.0 37.8 63.5 46.7 56.4
Profit Before Tax
26.0 37.7 63.3 48.6 56.3
Net Income
20.0 30.2 51.9 40.2 48.4
Profit Attributable to Parent
20.0 30.2 51.9 40.2 48.4
Earnings per Share
542.00 817.00 1,403.00 1,272.00 1,793.24

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