NS2

Nước sạch Số 2 Hà Nội ·UPCOM ·2024Q4

● Maintaining

Pre-tax profit relies materially on non-core sources Net financial result/PBT −94.68%
Price
Latest close
P/E
P/B
EPS 342
BVPS 10,347
ROE 3.3%
ROA 1.3%
Profit Margin 2.6%
Asset Turnover 0.49x
Equity Mult. 2.56x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2024Q4 basis, NS2 is maintaining revenue growth, but margins have not improved proportionally — profit is at an all-time high. Notably, most of the profit comes from non-core sources — this needs careful evaluation before concluding on growth quality.

TTM REVENUE
VND 740bn
+34.0%YoY
NET MARGIN
2.63%
−0.1ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
VND 19bn
+29.4%YoY
Non-core income / PBT
89.4%
Metric Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23 Q1'23 Q4'22 Q3'22 Q2'22 Q1'22
Revenue 198.2 199.6 185.3 156.7 164.4 152.1 129.9 105.8 126.9 127.4 117.4 102.1
Growth -1% +8% +18% -5% +8% +17% +23% -17% -0% +8% +15%
Net Income -9.9 9.1 12.7 7.6 10.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 4.6 4.5 2.4
Net Margin -5.00% 4.54% 6.84% 4.87% 6.06% 3.26% 0.03% 0.05% 2.12% 3.60% 3.81% 2.32%

Drivers of NS2's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 116.8bn
Selling expenses ↑ 93.0bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 10.3bn
Finance costs ↑ 4.2bn
Financial income ↓ 2.1bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to higher selling expenses. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 26.4bn
Tax ↓ 4.9bn
Selling expenses ↑ 28.0bn
Other profit ↓ 23.3bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2023Q4 2.6% = 2.7% × 0.40 × 2.34
2024Q4 3.3% = 2.6% × 0.49 × 2.56

ROE rose from 2.6% to 3.3% — mainly driven by leverage.

Net margin: 2.6% -0.1pp Asset turnover: 0.49x +0.09x Leverage: 2.56x +0.21x

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins are under pressure while earnings still rely significantly on non-core sources.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin stands at 2.63%, broadly flat versus the same period. Supportive factors and pressure points are offsetting one another.

Margin is nearly flat but the underlying components are moving — this is a transitional phase, more time is needed to see the real trend.

Profitability trend

Net Margin 2.63% −0.1pp
Gross Margin 48.29% +4.7pp
SG&A / Revenue 44.82% +3.5pp
Non-core / Revenue -0.17% −1.4pp

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Watchpoints

Non-core sources share remains high

Even though contribution decreased by 1.4pp, non-core sources still accounts for 89.4% of PBT — earnings durability should be monitored in coming periods.

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for utilities should be read alongside regulated tariffs and long-cycle depreciation — ROIC of 0.2% reflects a large fixed-asset base.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC edged up to 0.21%, rising 0.6pp. That translates to 0.21 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin rose 0.9pp and capital turnover rose 0.13x, while invested capital rose by 99bn — capital-return quality improved from both sides.

For utilities, ROIC reflects returns on a large fixed-asset base — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside regulated tariffs.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

ROIC 0.21% +0.6pp
NOPAT Margin 0.28% +0.9pp
Capital Turnover 0.76x +0.13x
Average Invested Capital 977.1bn +98.7bn

Balance Sheet

ROIC for utilities reflects a large fixed-asset base and regulated tariffs — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is balanced — liabilities at 1.65x equity, net debt at 0.72x equity.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 4.8bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and higher payables. Pressure from higher inventories only partly offset that benefit.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Receivables decreased → higher CFO: +3.0bn
Inventories increased → lower CFO: −112.3bn
Payables increased → higher CFO: +114.1bn

Working Capital Efficiency

Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 8.0 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 4.3 days, DSO fell 2.4 days, and DPO rose 1.3 days.

All 3 drivers (collection, inventory, payables) are improving — working capital turnover is strengthening across the board.

For utilities, working capital cycle reflects regulated pricing mechanics and long-term settlement contracts — DSO/DIO/DPO should be treated as contextual signals rather than pure efficiency indicators.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Receivables 5.8 days −2.4 days
Inventory 26.5 days −4.3 days
Payables 42.6 days +1.3 days
Cash Conversion Cycle -10.3 days −8.0 days

Is financial risk significant?

Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 32.4bn due to capex of 197.9bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 0.72x and interest coverage only at 0.09x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 9.2% of total debt, cash equals 18.2% of debt, and total debt stands at 518.7bn.

Leverage for utilities reflects long-term capital needs for fixed assets and recovery through regulated pricing — elevated leverage is structural to the industry.

Watchpoints

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is 0.09x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Cash buffer is thin relative to debt

Cash / debt stands at 18.2%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 0.72x +0.11x
Interest Coverage 0.09x +0.29x
Cash / Debt 18.2% +4.2pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 9.2% −2.5pp
CFO / NI 8.51x +3.47x

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Cash Flow

With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 165.4bn in 2024, against investing cash flow of -223.0bn.

Post-investment cash flow was negative +57.6bn. Financing cash flow was positive +93.4bn.

CFO / net income was 8.51x.

After spending +197.9bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −32.4bn.

For utilities, high capex and long investment cycles are structural — short-term FCF volatility does not reflect long-term cash generation through regulated pricing.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

CFO TTM 165.4bn +89.8bn
Cash Capex 197.9bn −1.8bn
FCF TTM −32.4bn +91.6bn

Investment Takeaway

The business does not yet provide a clear enough conclusion — not due to lack of data, but because the industry's nature makes many indicators prone to cyclical distortion. The reasonable reading is to keep the thesis in wait-for-confirmation mode. The next item to monitor is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is -94.7%. The main risk still sits in leverage and liquidity, with interest coverage at 0.09x.

Watchpoint: cash flow is currently keeping pace with accounting earnings, with CFO / net income at 8.51x. Even so, net financial result still accounts for -94.7% of PBT, so the earnings mix still needs monitoring.

Key risk: leverage and liquidity still require discipline, with interest coverage only at 0.09x.

Statement Data

Item 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020
Net Revenue
739.8 552.3 473.8 464.1 447.1
Cost of Goods Sold
382.6 311.8 255.4 0.0 0.0
Gross Profit
357.2 240.5 218.4 221.9 196.9
Financial Expenses
27.8 23.5 17.6 -16.2 -14.4
Selling Expenses
280.4 187.3 172.2 -176.8 -139.8
General and Administrative Expenses
51.3 41.0 40.0 -38.1 -31.4
Operating Profit
2.6 -4.6 -5.5 -3.6 16.8
Profit Before Tax
24.3 18.8 17.8 20.7 16.7
Net Income
19.4 15.0 14.2 16.6 13.4
Profit Attributable to Parent
19.4 15.0 14.2 16.6 13.4
Earnings per Share
170.00 131.00 124.00 292.14 235.35

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