NS2
Nước sạch Số 2 Hà Nội ·UPCOM ·2024Q4
● Maintaining
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2024Q4 basis, NS2 is maintaining revenue growth, but margins have not improved proportionally — profit is at an all-time high. Notably, most of the profit comes from non-core sources — this needs careful evaluation before concluding on growth quality.
| Metric | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q2'23 | Q1'23 | Q4'22 | Q3'22 | Q2'22 | Q1'22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 198.2 | 199.6 | 185.3 | 156.7 | 164.4 | 152.1 | 129.9 | 105.8 | 126.9 | 127.4 | 117.4 | 102.1 |
| Growth | -1% | +8% | +18% | -5% | +8% | +17% | +23% | -17% | -0% | +8% | +15% | — |
| Net Income | -9.9 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| Net Margin | -5.00% | 4.54% | 6.84% | 4.87% | 6.06% | 3.26% | 0.03% | 0.05% | 2.12% | 3.60% | 3.81% | 2.32% |
Drivers of NS2's profit
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to higher selling expenses. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE rose from 2.6% to 3.3% — mainly driven by leverage.
Is the profit sustainable?
Margins are under pressure while earnings still rely significantly on non-core sources.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin stands at 2.63%, broadly flat versus the same period. Supportive factors and pressure points are offsetting one another.
Margin is nearly flat but the underlying components are moving — this is a transitional phase, more time is needed to see the real trend.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4
Watchpoints
Even though contribution decreased by 1.4pp, non-core sources still accounts for 89.4% of PBT — earnings durability should be monitored in coming periods.
Is capital being used efficiently?
Capital efficiency for utilities should be read alongside regulated tariffs and long-cycle depreciation — ROIC of 0.2% reflects a large fixed-asset base.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
ROIC edged up to 0.21%, rising 0.6pp. That translates to 0.21 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin rose 0.9pp and capital turnover rose 0.13x, while invested capital rose by 99bn — capital-return quality improved from both sides.
For utilities, ROIC reflects returns on a large fixed-asset base — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside regulated tariffs.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4
Balance Sheet
ROIC for utilities reflects a large fixed-asset base and regulated tariffs — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is balanced — liabilities at 1.65x equity, net debt at 0.72x equity.
Over the last 12 months, working capital released 4.8bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and higher payables. Pressure from higher inventories only partly offset that benefit.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4
Working Capital Efficiency
Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 8.0 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 4.3 days, DSO fell 2.4 days, and DPO rose 1.3 days.
All 3 drivers (collection, inventory, payables) are improving — working capital turnover is strengthening across the board.
For utilities, working capital cycle reflects regulated pricing mechanics and long-term settlement contracts — DSO/DIO/DPO should be treated as contextual signals rather than pure efficiency indicators.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4
Is financial risk significant?
Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 32.4bn due to capex of 197.9bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.
Leverage & Liquidity
Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 0.72x and interest coverage only at 0.09x.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 9.2% of total debt, cash equals 18.2% of debt, and total debt stands at 518.7bn.
Leverage for utilities reflects long-term capital needs for fixed assets and recovery through regulated pricing — elevated leverage is structural to the industry.
Watchpoints
Interest coverage is 0.09x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.
Cash / debt stands at 18.2%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4
Cash Flow
With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 165.4bn in 2024, against investing cash flow of -223.0bn.
Post-investment cash flow was negative +57.6bn. Financing cash flow was positive +93.4bn.
CFO / net income was 8.51x.
After spending +197.9bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −32.4bn.
For utilities, high capex and long investment cycles are structural — short-term FCF volatility does not reflect long-term cash generation through regulated pricing.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4
Investment Takeaway
The business does not yet provide a clear enough conclusion — not due to lack of data, but because the industry's nature makes many indicators prone to cyclical distortion. The reasonable reading is to keep the thesis in wait-for-confirmation mode. The next item to monitor is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is -94.7%. The main risk still sits in leverage and liquidity, with interest coverage at 0.09x.
Watchpoint: cash flow is currently keeping pace with accounting earnings, with CFO / net income at 8.51x. Even so, net financial result still accounts for -94.7% of PBT, so the earnings mix still needs monitoring.
Key risk: leverage and liquidity still require discipline, with interest coverage only at 0.09x.
Statement Data
| Item | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
739.8 | 552.3 | 473.8 | 464.1 | 447.1 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
382.6 | 311.8 | 255.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
357.2 | 240.5 | 218.4 | 221.9 | 196.9 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
27.8 | 23.5 | 17.6 | -16.2 | -14.4 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
280.4 | 187.3 | 172.2 | -176.8 | -139.8 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
51.3 | 41.0 | 40.0 | -38.1 | -31.4 |
|
Operating Profit
|
2.6 | -4.6 | -5.5 | -3.6 | 16.8 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
24.3 | 18.8 | 17.8 | 20.7 | 16.7 |
|
Net Income
|
19.4 | 15.0 | 14.2 | 16.6 | 13.4 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
19.4 | 15.0 | 14.2 | 16.6 | 13.4 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
170.00 | 131.00 | 124.00 | 292.14 | 235.35 |
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