PGD
Phân phối khí thấp áp Dầu khí Việt Nam ·HOSE ·2026Q1
● Maintaining
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, PGD shows mild improvement in both revenue and margins, but the magnitude of change is narrow — profit is at an all-time high. Notably, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this needs monitoring in coming periods.
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q4'25 | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q2'23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,489.9 | 2,828.6 | 3,091.3 | 2,974.0 | 2,558.8 | 2,839.8 | 2,906.5 | 2,899.0 | 2,292.3 | 2,479.6 | 2,456.5 | 2,663.3 |
| Growth | -12% | -8% | +4% | +16% | -10% | -2% | +0% | +26% | -8% | +1% | -8% | — |
| Net Income | 65.0 | 29.8 | 74.2 | 64.3 | 0.0 | -2.2 | 97.6 | 117.0 | 36.8 | 68.3 | 23.0 | 63.0 |
| Net Margin | 2.61% | 1.05% | 2.40% | 2.16% | 0.00% | -0.08% | 3.36% | 4.04% | 1.60% | 2.75% | 0.94% | 2.37% |
Drivers of PGD's profit
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE rose from 14.6% to 15.5% — mainly driven by net margin, despite leverage moving in the opposite direction.
Is the profit sustainable?
Accounting profit is positive but operating cash flow has not caught up — needs more time to confirm.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin stands at 2.05%, broadly flat versus the same period. Supportive factors and pressure points are offsetting one another.
Margin is nearly flat but the underlying components are moving — this is a transitional phase, more time is needed to see the real trend.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is capital being used efficiently?
Capital efficiency for utilities should be read alongside regulated tariffs and long-cycle depreciation — ROIC reflects a large fixed-asset base.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
Track how much operating profit the business generates on invested capital.
For utilities, ROIC reflects returns on a large fixed-asset base — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside regulated tariffs.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Balance Sheet
ROIC for utilities reflects a large fixed-asset base and regulated tariffs — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Balance sheet is exceptionally sound — liabilities at 1.42x equity, with a net cash position equivalent to 0.52x equity.
Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 378.2bn of cash, mainly because of higher inventories and lower payables. Part of that drag was offset by lower receivables.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Working Capital Efficiency
Cash conversion cycle lengthened by 13.5 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 1.0 days, DSO fell 0.7 days, and DPO fell 13.3 days.
Working capital cycle lengthened mainly due to shorter payment timing — may reflect pressure from suppliers.
For utilities, working capital cycle reflects regulated pricing mechanics and long-term settlement contracts — DSO/DIO/DPO should be treated as contextual signals rather than pure efficiency indicators.
Watchpoints
CCC is up by +13.5 days, indicating weaker working-capital turnover versus the prior year.
DIO increased by +1.0 days, suggesting more capital is being tied up in inventories.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is financial risk significant?
Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 161.3bn due to capex of 18.3bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.
Leverage & Liquidity
Leverage looks fairly comfortable, with net debt / equity at -0.52x and interest coverage at 110.31x.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 1672.9% of debt, and total debt stands at 50.6bn.
Leverage for utilities reflects long-term capital needs for fixed assets and recovery through regulated pricing — elevated leverage is structural to the industry.
Watchpoints
Short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow reached -47.6bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -101.1bn.
Post-investment cash flow was negative +148.7bn. Financing cash flow was negative +118.0bn.
CFO / net income was -0.61x.
After spending +18.3bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −161.3bn.
For utilities, high capex and long investment cycles are structural — short-term FCF volatility does not reflect long-term cash generation through regulated pricing.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Investment Takeaway
The business does not yet provide a clear enough conclusion — not due to lack of data, but because the industry's nature makes many indicators prone to cyclical distortion. The reasonable reading is to keep the thesis in wait-for-confirmation mode. The brighter spot is earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at -0.61x. The next item to monitor is capital efficiency.
Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at -0.61x.
Watchpoint: Capital efficiency needs cycle context.
Statement Data
| Item | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
11,452.6 | 10,937.6 | 9,890.7 | 11,274.4 | 8,996.1 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
10,784.8 | 10,169.5 | 9,125.3 | 10,320.8 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
667.8 | 768.1 | 765.4 | 953.7 | 691.1 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
1.7 | 3.2 | 7.4 | 4.0 | -5.8 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
407.7 | 385.5 | 367.2 | 349.1 | -314.8 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
91.3 | 96.0 | 106.6 | 99.0 | -60.2 |
|
Operating Profit
|
210.0 | 314.4 | 335.9 | 521.4 | 321.9 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
209.8 | 312.9 | 335.4 | 519.7 | 323.2 |
|
Net Income
|
168.4 | 249.2 | 265.8 | 412.7 | 254.0 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
168.4 | 249.2 | 265.8 | 412.7 | 254.0 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
1,579.00 | 2,365.00 | 2,555.00 | 4,452.00 | 2,822.47 |
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