SVI
Bao bì Biên Hòa ·HOSE ·2024Q4
▼▼ Declining sharply
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2024Q4 basis, SVI is retaining some revenue, but margins are collapsing sharply — profit is at an all-time high. Costs or the profit mix are deteriorating faster than revenue is declining — this is the factor to watch ahead of everything else.
| Metric | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q2'23 | Q1'23 | Q4'22 | Q3'22 | Q2'22 | Q1'22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 420.5 | 374.5 | 354.4 | 356.6 | 410.5 | 359.0 | 387.1 | 349.0 | 424.7 | 462.6 | 514.5 | 476.3 |
| Growth | +12% | +6% | -1% | -13% | +14% | -7% | +11% | -18% | -8% | -10% | +8% | — |
| Net Income | 27.8 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 21.0 | 32.9 | 31.2 | 38.5 | 29.8 | 33.3 | 22.7 | 32.5 | 28.0 |
| Net Margin | 6.62% | 3.75% | 3.70% | 5.88% | 8.02% | 8.69% | 9.94% | 8.55% | 7.84% | 4.92% | 6.33% | 5.88% |
Drivers of SVI's profit
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to higher selling expenses. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE fell from 17.0% to 8.9% — all three components weakened, with asset turnover being the main drag.
Is the profit sustainable?
Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin fell to 5.04%, losing 3.8pp. The main pressure comes from Gross margin fell 2.8pp and SG&A / Revenue rose 1.4pp (in addition, Other profit / Revenue rose 0.0pp added support while Net financial result / Revenue fell 0.4pp remained a drag).
The pressure comes from core operations — this is a concerning type of decline, not a one-off movement.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4
Is capital being used efficiently?
Capital efficiency is declining — check whether the drag is from margins or turnover.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
ROIC fell to 8.56%, losing 8.0pp. That translates to 8.56 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 3.8pp and capital turnover fell 0.18x, while invested capital rose by 84bn — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.
Pressure came from the margin side — core operations are weakening, not just a temporary asset-management issue.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4
Balance Sheet
ROIC declined — the balance sheet shows how capital is being deployed. Capital structure is conservative with low leverage — liabilities at 0.55x equity, net debt at 0.10x equity.
Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 37.5bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables and lower payables. Part of that drag was offset by lower inventories.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4
Working Capital Efficiency
Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 2.4 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 7.1 days, DSO fell 0.1 days, and DPO fell 4.8 days.
Improvement comes mainly from faster inventory turnover — watch whether this trend persists in coming periods.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4
Is financial risk significant?
Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 2.8bn due to capex of 52.1bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.
Leverage & Liquidity
Leverage looks fairly comfortable, with net debt / equity at 0.10x and interest coverage at 18.55x.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, cash equals 37.1% of debt, and total debt stands at 145.1bn.
Watchpoints
Short-term debt accounts for 100.0% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4
Cash Flow
With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 51.9bn in 2024, against investing cash flow of -129.3bn.
Post-investment cash flow was negative +77.5bn. Financing cash flow was positive +78.1bn.
CFO / net income was 0.65x.
After spending +52.1bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −2.8bn.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4
Investment Takeaway
The business is heading the right way, but the current picture is still at partial confirmation — not yet a fully clean case. The positive points have clearly improved, showing the operating base is better than before. The next item to monitor is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is 18.6%. The main risk still sits in core profitability, with net margin down 3.8 pp.
Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for 18.6% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at 0.65x.
Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at 5.04% after a 3.8pp decline versus the same period last year.
Statement Data
| Item | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
1,506.0 | 1,505.5 | 1,878.1 | 1,837.2 | 1,687.4 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
1,287.3 | 1,244.5 | 1,611.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
218.6 | 261.0 | 266.9 | 232.5 | 292.5 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
5.3 | 6.3 | 5.5 | -6.3 | -10.6 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
95.8 | 72.0 | 82.9 | -79.7 | -74.2 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
42.5 | 45.8 | 43.5 | -40.5 | -30.0 |
|
Operating Profit
|
98.7 | 167.2 | 150.3 | 114.9 | 183.1 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
98.8 | 166.8 | 148.4 | 115.3 | 183.1 |
|
Net Income
|
75.9 | 132.4 | 116.6 | 92.1 | 146.3 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
75.9 | 132.4 | 116.6 | 92.1 | 146.3 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
5,918.00 | 10,319.00 | 9,086.00 | 6,688.00 | 10,032.00 |
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