GSM

Thủy điện Hương Sơn ·UPCOM ·2026Q1

▲ Slightly positive

Earnings conversion is confirmed CFO/NPAT 2.15x
Price
30,500
Latest close
03 Jun 2026
P/E 7.71x
P/B 1.48x
EPS 3,954
BVPS 20,549
ROE 20.2%
ROA 14.8%
Profit Margin 48.6%
Asset Turnover 0.30x
Equity Mult. 1.37x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, GSM is showing a few mildly positive signals versus the same period, though the magnitude is narrow — margins have been expanding consistently over multiple periods. The direction is leaning toward improvement, but the next test will be whether the magnitude widens enough to become a trend.

TTM REVENUE
VND 233bn
+27.1%YoY
NET MARGIN
48.55%
−1.1ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
VND 113bn
+24.4%YoY
Metric Q1'26 Q4'25 Q3'25 Q2'25 Q1'25 Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23
Revenue 51.1 74.4 52.7 54.4 48.8 78.1 37.1 19.0 22.7 51.1 25.5 14.7
Growth -31% +41% -3% +12% -37% +110% +96% -16% -56% +100% +73%
Net Income 21.0 41.3 22.2 28.5 22.3 48.8 17.0 2.8 1.2 27.6 5.1 -5.5
Net Margin 41.11% 55.54% 42.07% 52.26% 45.62% 62.47% 45.70% 14.56% 5.43% 54.03% 19.92% -37.41%

Drivers of GSM's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 31.9bn
Tax ↑ 5.3bn
Finance costs ↑ 4.8bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to higher tax. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 2.7bn
Finance costs ↓ 0.7bn
Financial income ↑ 0.2bn
Tax ↑ 4.1bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 0.5bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2025Q1 17.6% = 49.6% × 0.25 × 1.45
2026Q1 20.2% = 48.6% × 0.30 × 1.37

ROE rose from 17.6% to 20.2% — mainly driven by asset turnover, despite net margin and leverage moving in the opposite direction.

Net margin: 48.6% -1.1pp Asset turnover: 0.30x +0.06x Leverage: 1.37x -0.08x

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin narrowed to 48.55%, falling 1.1pp. SG&A / Revenue fell 1.1pp and Gross margin rose 0.8pp improved but not enough to offset the weakness in Net financial result / Revenue fell 1.1pp.

The pressure comes from non-core items while core operations hold their rhythm — margin has a basis to recover once this factor passes.

Profitability trend

Net Margin 48.55% −1.1pp
Gross Margin 61.36% +0.8pp
SG&A / Revenue 3.64% −1.1pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for utilities should be read alongside regulated tariffs and long-cycle depreciation — ROIC of 15.3% reflects a large fixed-asset base.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC expanded to 15.26%, rising 2.6pp. That translates to 15.26 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. The main driver is capital turnover rose 0.06x — the business is generating more revenue per unit of capital, with NOPAT margin narrowed 0.9pp; with invested capital holding roughly steady.

For utilities, ROIC reflects returns on a large fixed-asset base — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside regulated tariffs.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

ROIC 15.26% +2.6pp
NOPAT Margin 48.56% −0.9pp
Capital Turnover 0.31x +0.06x
Average Invested Capital 740.3bn +26.2bn

Balance Sheet

ROIC for utilities reflects a large fixed-asset base and regulated tariffs — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is conservative with low leverage — liabilities at 0.32x equity, net debt at 0.26x equity.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 0.0bn of cash.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables were broadly stable → neutral CFO:
Inventories were broadly stable → neutral CFO:
Payables were broadly stable → neutral CFO:

Working Capital Efficiency

Cash conversion cycle lengthened by 21.3 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 0.5 days, DSO rose 4.6 days, and DPO fell 17.1 days.

Working capital cycle lengthened mainly due to shorter payment timing — may reflect pressure from suppliers.

For utilities, working capital cycle reflects regulated pricing mechanics and long-term settlement contracts — DSO/DIO/DPO should be treated as contextual signals rather than pure efficiency indicators.

Watchpoints

Cash conversion cycle remains stretched

CCC stands at 105.1 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.

Receivables collection is slowing

DSO increased by +4.6 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables 128.6 days +4.6 days
Inventory 1.9 days −0.5 days
Payables 25.3 days −17.1 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 105.1 days +21.3 days

Is financial risk significant?

Check leverage, liquidity, and cash-flow conversion.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage looks fairly comfortable, with net debt / equity at 0.26x and interest coverage at 9.35x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 7.1% of total debt, cash equals 4.5% of debt, and total debt stands at 162.9bn.

Leverage for utilities reflects long-term capital needs for fixed assets and recovery through regulated pricing — elevated leverage is structural to the industry.

Watchpoints

Cash buffer is thin relative to debt

Cash / debt stands at 4.5%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 0.26x −0.12x
Interest Coverage 9.35x −1.99x
Cash / Debt 4.5% +1.9pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 7.1% −14.5pp
CFO / NI 2.15x +2.33x

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Cash Flow

With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 206.8bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -34.6bn.

Post-investment cash flow was positive +172.2bn. Financing cash flow was negative +120.7bn.

CFO / net income was 2.15x.

Track how much investment can be funded internally from operating cash flow.

For utilities, high capex and long investment cycles are structural — short-term FCF volatility does not reflect long-term cash generation through regulated pricing.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

CFO TTM 242.3bn +258.8bn
Cash Capex
FCF TTM

Investment Takeaway

The business is showing brightening signals, but the improvement is still early and not yet thick enough to read as a confirmed trend. The brighter spot is earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at 2.15x. The next item to monitor is capital efficiency, with ROIC at 15.3%. The main risk still sits in leverage and liquidity, with interest coverage at 9.35x.

Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at 2.15x.

Watchpoint: Capital efficiency needs cycle context.

Key risk: leverage and liquidity remain a pressure point, with net debt / equity at 0.26x and a thin cash buffer.

Statement Data

Item 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Net Revenue
230.4 156.7 124.4 174.3 150.0
Cost of Goods Sold
90.4 71.0 72.5 80.7 0.0
Gross Profit
139.9 85.7 51.8 93.5 78.7
Financial Expenses
13.8 5.9 8.3 10.6 -14.1
Selling Expenses
0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0
General and Administrative Expenses
7.7 7.6 8.9 9.0 -8.7
Operating Profit
120.1 73.8 38.4 74.2 56.2
Profit Before Tax
120.3 73.9 38.2 69.4 58.0
Net Income
114.2 69.6 36.2 65.6 55.1
Profit Attributable to Parent
114.2 69.6 36.2 65.6 55.1
Earnings per Share
4,000.00 2,437.00 1,269.00 2,295.00 1,930.00

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