TMP

Thủy điện Thác Mơ ·HOSE ·2026Q1

▼▼ Declining sharply

Margins remain under pressure Net margin 43.11%, −3.68pp YoY
Price
46,500
Latest close
02 Jun 2026
P/E 9.88x
P/B 1.86x
EPS 4,706
BVPS 25,049
ROE 19.7%
ROA 16.2%
Profit Margin 42.3%
Asset Turnover 0.38x
Equity Mult. 1.22x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, TMP is retaining some revenue, but margins are collapsing sharply — margins have been compressing consistently over multiple periods. Costs or the profit mix are deteriorating faster than revenue is declining — this is the factor to watch ahead of everything else.

TTM REVENUE
VND 778bn
−1.0%YoY
NET MARGIN
43.11%
−3.7ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
VND 336bn
−8.8%YoY
Metric Q1'26 Q4'25 Q3'25 Q2'25 Q1'25 Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23
Revenue 159.6 193.2 239.6 186.0 134.7 232.9 256.0 162.7 112.1 219.2 228.5 209.6
Growth -17% -19% +29% +38% -42% -9% +57% +45% -49% -4% +9%
Net Income 65.6 75.7 108.8 85.4 52.1 109.2 131.7 74.9 39.2 94.3 115.8 131.6
Net Margin 41.07% 39.18% 45.44% 45.95% 38.70% 46.89% 51.45% 46.05% 35.02% 43.01% 50.69% 62.81%

Drivers of TMP's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Financial income ↑ 16.7bn
Tax ↓ 14.5bn
Finance costs ↓ 4.0bn
Gross profit ↓ 64.6bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 8.2bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher financial income. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Financial income ↑ 15.1bn
Tax ↓ 2.0bn
Gross profit ↓ 3.4bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2025Q1 25.0% = 46.8% × 0.41 × 1.29
2026Q1 20.1% = 43.1% × 0.38 × 1.22

ROE fell from 25.0% to 20.1% — all three components weakened, with leverage being the main drag.

Net margin: 43.1% -3.7pp Asset turnover: 0.38x -0.03x Leverage: 1.22x -0.07x

Is the profit sustainable?

Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin fell to 43.11%, losing 3.7pp. The main pressure comes from Gross margin fell 7.7pp and SG&A / Revenue rose 1.1pp (with additional support from Net financial result / Revenue rose 2.7pp).

The pressure comes from core operations — this is a concerning type of decline, not a one-off movement.

Profitability trend

Net Margin 43.11% −3.7pp
Gross Margin 51.19% −7.7pp
SG&A / Revenue 8.72% +1.1pp

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for utilities should be read alongside regulated tariffs and long-cycle depreciation — ROIC of 17.8% reflects a large fixed-asset base.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC fell to 17.84%, losing 3.7pp. That translates to 17.84 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. The main pressure came from NOPAT margin narrowed 3.7pp, outweighing the movement in capital turnover; while invested capital rose by 173bn.

For utilities, ROIC reflects returns on a large fixed-asset base — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside regulated tariffs.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

ROIC 17.84% −3.7pp
NOPAT Margin 43.08% −3.7pp
Capital Turnover 0.41x −0.05x
Average Invested Capital 1,879.5bn +172.7bn

Balance Sheet

ROIC for utilities reflects a large fixed-asset base and regulated tariffs — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is conservative with low leverage — liabilities at 0.33x equity, net debt at 0.11x equity.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 99.6bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and higher payables. Pressure from higher inventories only partly offset that benefit.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables decreased → higher CFO: +71.9bn
Inventories increased → lower CFO: −0.7bn
Payables increased → higher CFO: +28.4bn

Working Capital Efficiency

Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 36.7 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO fell 0.3 days, DSO fell 30.3 days, and DPO rose 6.0 days.

All 3 drivers (collection, inventory, payables) are improving — working capital turnover is strengthening across the board.

For utilities, working capital cycle reflects regulated pricing mechanics and long-term settlement contracts — DSO/DIO/DPO should be treated as contextual signals rather than pure efficiency indicators.

Watchpoints

Cash conversion cycle remains stretched

CCC stands at 129.3 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Receivables 148.6 days −30.3 days
Inventory 1.0 days −0.3 days
Payables 20.3 days +6.0 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 129.3 days −36.7 days

Is financial risk significant?

Financial risk is low — leverage is safe, both CFO and FCF are positive.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage looks fairly comfortable, with net debt / equity at 0.11x and interest coverage at 20.89x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 15.8% of total debt, cash equals 24.9% of debt, and total debt stands at 247.0bn.

Leverage for utilities reflects long-term capital needs for fixed assets and recovery through regulated pricing — elevated leverage is structural to the industry.

Watchpoints

Cash buffer is thin relative to debt

Cash / debt stands at 24.9%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 0.11x −0.04x
Interest Coverage 20.89x +1.59x
Cash / Debt 24.9% +1.2pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 15.8% +2.8pp
CFO / NI 1.33x +0.20x

TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

Cash Flow

With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 514.8bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -320.0bn.

Post-investment cash flow was positive +194.8bn. Financing cash flow was negative +142.5bn.

CFO / net income was 1.33x.

After spending +78.6bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +361.0bn.

For utilities, high capex and long investment cycles are structural — short-term FCF volatility does not reflect long-term cash generation through regulated pricing.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1

CFO TTM 439.6bn +26.4bn
Cash Capex 78.6bn
FCF TTM +361.0bn

Investment Takeaway

The business is under real pressure, but the current picture has not turned broadly adverse. A notable area has clearly weakened, making the near-term outlook hard to call bright; even so, other parts of the business are still holding up, with margins remain under pressure remaining the main constraint, with net margin down 3.7 pp. The next watchpoint is capital efficiency, with ROIC at 17.8%. The main offsetting support comes from earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at 1.33x.

Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at 1.33x.

Watchpoint: Capital efficiency needs cycle context.

Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at 43.11% after a 3.7pp decline versus the same period last year.

Statement Data

Item 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Net Revenue
752.0 763.6 854.0 1,070.3 748.3
Cost of Goods Sold
348.5 321.8 315.2 334.0 0.0
Gross Profit
403.6 441.8 538.9 736.3 464.5
Financial Expenses
19.5 24.6 35.3 35.2 -33.0
Selling Expenses
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
General and Administrative Expenses
67.8 59.4 53.7 68.3 -58.4
Operating Profit
386.2 425.6 554.1 702.8 433.4
Profit Before Tax
386.6 425.6 554.4 707.5 433.7
Net Income
323.1 355.2 460.2 580.1 363.1
Profit Attributable to Parent
317.5 350.4 455.0 573.4 356.4
Earnings per Share
4,535.00 5,005.00 6,500.00 8,191.00 5,090.85

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