CTS
Chứng khoán VietinBank ·HOSE ·2026Q1
● FUNDING UNDER PRESSURE
Securities House Picture
On a TTM basis through 2026Q1, pre-tax profit is currently about 664.0bn, equivalent to a pre-tax margin of 33.5%, but headline durability remains more sensitive to revaluation, with margin also improving by +11.5pp, pointing to better earnings quality. The revenue mix still leans mainly on trading at 56.2% but narrowing by 4.6pp, while lending has widened to 28.6%; brokerage and services have reached 15.2% and improved by +4.0pp, making diversification more visible. On the balance sheet, Equity / Assets is 21.8% while Leverage is about 3.59x, indicating that buffers and funding are not yet truly roomy, but buffers have thinned while leverage has risen further.
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q4'25 | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBT | 82.0 | 26.9 | 337.8 | 217.4 | 132.6 | 73.3 | 64.5 | 25.2 | 124.4 |
| Trading Share | 31.5% | 36.5% | 66.4% | 69.7% | 73.8% | 53.4% | 56.4% | 50.7% | 59.5% |
| Lending Share | 48.4% | 40.0% | 20.3% | 20.2% | 19.9% | 33.7% | 31.0% | 32.7% | 28.6% |
| Service & Brokerage Share | 20.1% | 23.4% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 12.9% | 12.6% | 16.6% | 11.8% |
| PBT Margin | 23.29% | 6.72% | 51.74% | 37.59% | 28.53% | 24.21% | 21.38% | 9.22% | 38.42% |
| Equity / Assets | 21.8% | 23.0% | 24.6% | 23.8% | 24.3% | 25.9% | 23.8% | 27.1% | 31.0% |
| Leverage | 3.59x | 3.35x | 3.06x | 3.20x | 3.11x | 2.86x | 3.19x | 2.69x | 2.23x |
Drivers of CTS's profit
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher trading. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to higher total costs. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
Is revenue sustainable?
Revenue Mix & Earnings Engine
Where are current earnings coming from?
Earnings are still being supported by trading, but revaluation has become large enough to make the headline less durable than usual.
Trading currently accounts for about 56.2%, lending is at 28.6%, brokerage is around 12.1%, other services about 3.1%, brokerage plus services together are 15.2%.
The earnings engine is already less one-dimensional, so the more important question is whether diversification can hold.
Trading income is materially dependent on revaluation.
The mix is still fairly readable for now, but case durability will depend on whether brokerage and services keep thickening.
Key risks
A large part of trading income is coming from revaluation, so earnings may be more volatile than the headline suggests.
Key signals
TTM YoY · 2026Q1
Profitability Quality & Volatility
How strong is current profitability, and how durable is it?
Headline profitability remains solid, but durability is weaker because part of the result is still sensitive to revaluation.
Pre-tax margin is currently 33.5%, Return on assets is about 4.7%, provisions equal -2.4% of pre-tax profit, revaluation accounts for 75.7% of pre-tax profit.
Headline profit should not be read purely off reported PBT because revaluation still makes the result more volatile.
Profit remains sensitive to revaluation swings.
Provisioning is not currently the main drag on profit.
Key risks
Revaluation makes up a large enough share of PBT to make profit quality less durable than the headline suggests.
Key signals
TTM YoY · 2026Q1
Are assets at risk?
Balance Sheet Quality & Asset Composition
Where is the balance sheet exposed, and how resilient does it look?
The balance sheet is leaning more toward the margin book, so growth quality depends meaningfully on the safety of loans and receivables.
The margin book is about 40.7% of assets, the prop book about 20.3%, liquid assets around 30.8%, equity roughly 21.8%.
A high margin-book share makes the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.
The margin book is larger than the prop book.
Capital buffer is not the main weakness for now, so the key reading point shifts to which assets are driving the balance sheet.
Key risks
Loans and receivables are large enough to make the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.
Key signals
Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1
Is leverage safe?
Capital, Funding & Risk Posture
Are capital buffers and funding posture sufficiently safe?
Short-term funding is the tighter part of the balance sheet, even if the case is not yet in outright capital stress.
Equity currently equals 21.8% of assets, liabilities stand at 3.59x of equity, short-term borrowings are about 70.4% of assets, cash covers roughly 0.05x of short-term borrowings.
The point that needs the closest reading now is short-term funding structure rather than the earnings headline.
Risk is coming more from short-term funding, so the key reading point is not just borrowing size but cash and liquid-asset cover.
Liquidity buffer remains relatively better than short-term funding needs.
Key risks
Short-term borrowings or cash coverage are in a range that creates more pressure on funding and liquidity posture.
Liabilities-to-equity remains high, making capital posture more sensitive to earnings and asset-valuation swings.
Key signals
Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1
Investment Takeaway
Overall, CTS is showing a more balanced earnings mix thanks to brokerage and service income, but short-term funding remains tight enough for caution.
Brokerage and service income are now large enough to reduce pure dependence on trading or margin.
Short-term funding structure is tight enough to become the most visible risk in the current capital posture.
Statement Data
| Item | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
|
1.1. Gains from financial assets at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL)
|
1,170.4 | 391.8 |
|
1.3. Interest income from loans and receivables
|
434.2 | 319.6 |
|
1.6. Revenue from brokerage services
|
180.8 | 105.2 |
|
Revenue from securities business (01->11)
|
2,095.8 | 1,032.2 |
|
Operating expenses (21->33)
|
849.3 | 356.0 |
|
Gross profit
|
1,246.6 | 676.3 |
|
Total financial income (41->44)
|
2.6 | 3.8 |
|
Total financial expenses (51->54)
|
374.5 | 256.3 |
|
VI. General and Administrative expenses
|
160.5 | 138.6 |
|
VII. Net profit from securities business (20+50-40-60-61-62)
|
714.2 | 285.1 |
|
IX. Profit before tax (70+80)
|
714.7 | 287.4 |
|
CORPORATE INCOME TAX
|
137.3 | 56.3 |
|
XI. Net profit after tax (90-100)
|
577.4 | 231.1 |
|
11.1. Profit after tax for shareholders of the parents company
|
577.4 | 231.1 |
|
Total other comprehensive income
|
627.1 | 231.1 |
|
13.1. Earning per share
|
2,715.00 | 1,554.00 |
|
13.2. Diluted earning per share
|
2,715.00 | — |
|
Earnings per Share
|
2,705.14 | 1,545.93 |
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