HCM

Chứng khoán Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh ·HOSE ·2026Q1

● PROVISION HEAVY

Provision drag PBT margin 27.7%, -0.2% YoY
Price
26,650
Latest close
02 Jun 2026
EPS TTM (TTM) 1,294
BVPS (Latest) 12,244
P/E (Price/EPS) 20.6x
P/B (Price/BVPS) 2.2x
ROAE TTM (TTM) 10.1%
PBT Margin (TTM) 27.7%
Trading Share (Mix) 27.6%
Service & Brokerage Share (Mix) 25.4%
Equity / Assets (Latest) 35.6%
Leverage (Latest) 1.8x

Securities House Picture

On a TTM basis through 2026Q1, pre-tax profit is currently about 1,554.5bn, equivalent to a pre-tax margin of 27.7%, but earnings quality is still being dragged down by provisioning, while pre-tax profit is also rising clearly year on year. The revenue mix is now leaning more toward lending at 47.1% after expanding by +4.1pp, while trading is down to 27.6% after narrowing by 8.2pp; brokerage and services have reached 25.4% and improved by +4.2pp, making diversification more visible. On the balance sheet, Equity / Assets is 35.6% while Leverage is about 1.81x, indicating that buffers and funding are not yet truly roomy, with buffers thickening and leverage easing further.

Trading
Doanh thu 1.544 tỷ
−2,2%
Lãi thuần 721 tỷ
+17,2%
Margin lending
Doanh thu 2.637 tỷ
+39,0%
Dư nợ 28.140 tỷ
+38,0%
Margin/equity 195.4% — approaching cap 200%
Brokerage
Doanh thu 1.349 tỷ
+69,0%
Lãi thuần 470 tỷ
+136,0%
Metric Q1'26 Q4'25 Q3'25 Q2'25 Q1'25 Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24
PBT 363.4 401.5 550.0 239.7 283.1 284.6 275.3 389.9 345.8
Trading Share 24.5% 24.8% 30.2% 31.2% 24.9% 40.1% 40.4% 36.4% 35.1%
Lending Share 52.2% 52.3% 38.5% 46.5% 52.3% 43.2% 42.0% 35.3% 39.3%
Service & Brokerage Share 23.3% 22.9% 31.3% 22.3% 22.8% 16.8% 17.6% 28.3% 25.6%
PBT Margin 24.78% 28.71% 33.03% 22.33% 28.32% 24.09% 24.20% 35.64% 40.06%
Equity / Assets 35.6% 31.3% 23.7% 29.1% 33.8% 33.3% 30.7% 38.4% 42.1%
Leverage 1.81x 2.20x 3.21x 2.43x 1.95x 2.00x 2.25x 1.60x 1.38x

Drivers of HCM's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher margin lending. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Margin lending +VND 740bn
Brokerage +VND 271bn
Trading +VND 106bn
Total costs −VND 730bn
Tax −VND 68.5bn
Other fees −VND 65.2bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher margin lending. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Margin lending +VND 242bn
Brokerage +VND 62.9bn
Trading +VND 61.3bn
Total costs −VND 240bn
Other fees −VND 46.1bn
Tax −VND 16.2bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

Is revenue sustainable?

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

Revenue Mix & Earnings Engine

Where are current earnings coming from?

Current earnings lean more heavily on margin lending, so the quality of the revenue engine should be read together with margin-book dependence.

Margin income currently accounts for about 47.1%, trading is at 27.6%, brokerage and services together remain around 25.4% of the engine mix.

When lending is the main engine, headline quality depends more heavily on margin-book safety and funding cost.

Revaluation does not fully dominate trading income at this stage.

The revenue headline should be read together with leakage into provisioning and net margin, not just the surface mix.

Key risks

Provision drag is eroding revenue

Provision load is large enough relative to revenue to weaken the quality of the earnings engine.

Key signals

Securities business revenue 5,603.0bn +27.0% YoY
PBT margin 27.7% −0.2pp
Lending Share 47.1% +4.1pp
Brokerage Share 24.1% +6.0pp
Provisions / Revenue 25.9% +6.9pp

TTM YoY · 2026Q1

Profitability Quality & Volatility

How strong is current profitability, and how durable is it?

Profit remains positive, but quality is no longer clean because provisioning is materially eroding headline returns.

Pre-tax margin is currently 27.7%, Return on assets is about 3.5%, provisions equal 93.5% of pre-tax profit, revaluation accounts for 7.9% of pre-tax profit.

Headline profit needs a discount because provisioning is eating into core returns.

Profit appears cleaner and less dependent on revaluation.

Provisioning is a meaningful drag on profit.

Key risks

Provision drag remains meaningful

Provision load relative to PBT is high enough to weigh on profitability quality.

Key signals

PBT margin 27.7% −0.2pp
Net margin 22.2% −0.2pp
ROAA 3.5% +1.0pp
ROAE 10.1% +2.1pp
Provisions / PBT 93.5% +25.3pp

TTM YoY · 2026Q1

Are assets at risk?

Balance Sheet Quality & Asset Composition

Where is the balance sheet exposed, and how resilient does it look?

The balance sheet is leaning more toward the margin book, so growth quality depends meaningfully on the safety of loans and receivables.

The margin book is about 69.5% of assets, the prop book about 25.0%, liquid assets around 3.0%, equity roughly 35.6%.

A high margin-book share makes the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.

The margin book is larger than the prop book.

Capital buffer is not the main weakness for now, so the key reading point shifts to which assets are driving the balance sheet.

Key risks

Margin-book concentration risk

Loans and receivables are large enough to make the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.

Key signals

Margin book / Assets 69.5% +2.6pp
Prop book / Assets 25.0% +0.7pp
Liquid assets / Assets 3.0% −2.2pp
Equity / Assets 35.6% +1.7pp
Liabilities / Equity 1.81x −0.14x

Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1

Is leverage safe?

Capital, Funding & Risk Posture

Are capital buffers and funding posture sufficiently safe?

Short-term funding is the tighter part of the balance sheet, even if the case is not yet in outright capital stress.

Equity currently equals 35.6% of assets, liabilities stand at 1.81x of equity, short-term borrowings are about 62.8% of assets, cash covers roughly 0.05x of short-term borrowings.

The point that needs the closest reading now is short-term funding structure rather than the earnings headline.

Risk is coming more from short-term funding, so the key reading point is not just borrowing size but cash and liquid-asset cover.

Liquidity buffer is not yet thick enough relative to short-term funding needs.

Key risks

Short-term funding pressure

Short-term borrowings or cash coverage are in a range that creates more pressure on funding and liquidity posture.

Key signals

Equity / Assets 35.6% +1.7pp
Liabilities / Equity 1.81x −0.14x
Short-term borrowings / Assets 62.8% −1.3pp
Liquid assets / Assets 3.0% −2.2pp
Cash / Short-term borrowings 0.05x

Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1

Investment Takeaway

Overall, HCM is still profitable, but headline quality is being pulled down more clearly by provisioning, so earnings should be read with caution.

Brokerage and service income are now large enough to reduce pure dependence on trading or margin.

When earnings lean heavily on margin lending, margin-book asset quality and funding need closer monitoring.

Provisioning is now large enough that headline profitability should be read with more caution.

Statement Data

Item 2025 2024
1.1. Gains from financial assets at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL)
1,433.1 1,633.3
1.3. Interest income from loans and receivables
2,395.0 1,714.0
1.6. Revenue from brokerage services
1,189.1 848.4
Revenue from securities business (01->11)
5,136.2 4,276.2
Operating expenses (21->33)
3,152.4 2,555.4
Gross profit
1,983.7 1,720.9
Total financial income (41->44)
2.4 2.8
VI. General and Administrative expenses
511.9 428.3
VII. Net profit from securities business (20+50-40-60-61-62)
1,474.2 1,295.3
IX. Profit before tax (70+80)
1,474.3 1,295.6
CORPORATE INCOME TAX
295.7 255.9
XI. Net profit after tax (90-100)
1,178.6 1,039.7
11.1. Profit after tax for shareholders of the parents company
1,178.6 1,039.7
Total other comprehensive income
1,039.7
13.1. Earning per share
1,468.00 1,637.00
13.2. Diluted earning per share
1,468.00 1,637.00
Earnings per Share
1,001.99 1,273.60

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