DSE
Chứng khoán DNSE ·HOSE ·2026Q1
● PROVISION HEAVY
Securities House Picture
On a TTM basis through 2026Q1, pre-tax profit is currently about 287.9bn, equivalent to a pre-tax margin of 17.9%, but earnings quality is still being dragged down by provisioning, while margin has narrowed by 5.8pp, pointing to greater pressure on earnings quality. The revenue mix is now leaning more toward lending at 47.2% but narrowing by 16.7pp, while trading is at 14.0%; brokerage and services have reached 38.9% and improved by +10.9pp, making diversification more visible. On the balance sheet, Equity / Assets is 34.4% while Leverage is about 1.90x, indicating that buffers and funding are not yet truly roomy, but buffers have thinned while leverage has risen further.
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q4'25 | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q4'24 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBT | 14.2 | 11.7 | 171.1 | 91.0 | 66.5 | 41.5 | 55.5 | 42.7 | 87.7 |
| Trading Share | 7.9% | 15.4% | 17.6% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 12.8% |
| Lending Share | 49.7% | 45.2% | 42.4% | 53.8% | 60.0% | 65.9% | 67.4% | 62.8% | 59.6% |
| Service & Brokerage Share | 42.4% | 39.4% | 40.0% | 33.4% | 29.9% | 26.5% | 25.4% | 30.2% | 27.5% |
| PBT Margin | 3.59% | 2.68% | 34.95% | 31.36% | 27.31% | 17.76% | 28.64% | 21.56% | 48.33% |
| Equity / Assets | 34.4% | 28.4% | 30.6% | 34.9% | 36.6% | 37.9% | 40.1% | 46.3% | 46.0% |
| Leverage | 1.90x | 2.52x | 2.26x | 1.87x | 1.73x | 1.64x | 1.50x | 1.16x | 1.17x |
Drivers of DSE's profit
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher margin lending. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to higher total costs. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
Is revenue sustainable?
Revenue Mix & Earnings Engine
Where are current earnings coming from?
Current earnings lean more heavily on margin lending, so the quality of the revenue engine should be read together with margin-book dependence.
Margin income currently accounts for about 47.2%, trading is at 14.0%, brokerage and services together remain around 38.9% of the engine mix.
When lending is the main engine, headline quality depends more heavily on margin-book safety and funding cost.
Revaluation is currently only a small component and not a headline driver.
The revenue headline should be read together with leakage into provisioning and net margin, not just the surface mix.
Key risks
Provision load is large enough relative to revenue to weaken the quality of the earnings engine.
Key signals
TTM YoY · 2026Q1
Profitability Quality & Volatility
How strong is current profitability, and how durable is it?
Profit remains positive, but quality is no longer clean because provisioning is materially eroding headline returns.
Pre-tax margin is currently 17.9%, Return on assets is about 1.7%, provisions equal 143.7% of pre-tax profit, revaluation accounts for -2.7% of pre-tax profit.
Headline profit needs a discount because provisioning is eating into core returns.
Profit appears cleaner and less dependent on revaluation.
Provisioning is a meaningful drag on profit.
Key risks
Provision load relative to PBT is high enough to weigh on profitability quality.
ROAA or ROAE remains in a weak range, leaving profitability on an insufficient base.
Key signals
TTM YoY · 2026Q1
Are assets at risk?
Balance Sheet Quality & Asset Composition
Where is the balance sheet exposed, and how resilient does it look?
The balance sheet is leaning more toward the prop book, making market-valuation sensitivity a key issue to monitor.
The margin book is about 38.0% of assets, the prop book about 9.7%, liquid assets around 49.2%, equity roughly 34.4%.
A high prop-book share lets market-valuation swings flow more directly into the balance sheet.
The margin book is larger than the prop book.
Capital buffer is not the main weakness for now, so the key reading point shifts to which assets are driving the balance sheet.
Key risks
Loans and receivables are large enough to make the balance sheet more sensitive to asset quality and funding cost.
Key signals
Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1
Is leverage safe?
Capital, Funding & Risk Posture
Are capital buffers and funding posture sufficiently safe?
Short-term funding is the tighter part of the balance sheet, even if the case is not yet in outright capital stress.
Equity currently equals 34.4% of assets, liabilities stand at 1.90x of equity, short-term borrowings are about 55.9% of assets, cash covers roughly 0.09x of short-term borrowings.
The point that needs the closest reading now is short-term funding structure rather than the earnings headline.
Risk is coming more from short-term funding, so the key reading point is not just borrowing size but cash and liquid-asset cover.
Liquidity buffer remains relatively better than short-term funding needs.
Key risks
Short-term borrowings or cash coverage are in a range that creates more pressure on funding and liquidity posture.
Key signals
Quarterly YoY · 2026Q1
Investment Takeaway
Overall, DSE is showing a more balanced earnings mix thanks to brokerage and service income, but funding or capital risk still calls for caution.
Brokerage and service income are now large enough to reduce pure dependence on trading or margin.
Profit is still positive, but provisioning is large enough to make earnings durability less certain.
Profitability does not currently show a sufficiently durable base to be read as a clean case.
Statement Data
| Item | 2025 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
|
1.1. Gains from financial assets at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL)
|
171.4 | 47.9 |
|
1.3. Interest income from loans and receivables
|
555.8 | 360.5 |
|
1.6. Revenue from brokerage services
|
404.0 | 144.8 |
|
Revenue from securities business (01->11)
|
1,457.9 | 807.4 |
|
Operating expenses (21->33)
|
877.2 | 419.5 |
|
Gross profit
|
580.7 | 387.9 |
|
Total financial income (41->44)
|
7.5 | 5.6 |
|
Total financial expenses (51->54)
|
67.6 | 28.1 |
|
VI. General and Administrative expenses
|
181.4 | 151.9 |
|
VII. Net profit from securities business (20+50-40-60-61-62)
|
339.3 | 213.5 |
|
IX. Profit before tax (70+80)
|
340.2 | 227.5 |
|
CORPORATE INCOME TAX
|
67.7 | 45.7 |
|
XI. Net profit after tax (90-100)
|
272.5 | 181.8 |
|
11.1. Profit after tax for shareholders of the parents company
|
272.5 | 181.8 |
|
13.1. Earning per share
|
748.00 | 556.00 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
703.72 | 550.82 |
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