IDP
Sữa Quốc tế Lof ·UPCOM ·2026Q1
▼▼ Declining sharply
TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity
What Is Changing
On a TTM 2026Q1 basis, IDP posted a very sharp profit drop versus the same period, showing that pressure has clearly fed through to the bottom line — margins have been compressing consistently over multiple periods. The key watch now is how long the business needs to stabilize its profit base.
| Metric | Q1'26 | Q4'25 | Q3'25 | Q2'25 | Q1'25 | Q3'24 | Q2'24 | Q1'24 | Q4'23 | Q3'23 | Q1'23 | Q4'22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,901.0 | 1,870.2 | 1,618.0 | 2,112.7 | 1,831.7 | 2,048.3 | 1,929.9 | 1,584.4 | 1,676.8 | 1,646.2 | 1,576.8 | 1,671.7 |
| Growth | +2% | +16% | -23% | +15% | -11% | +6% | +22% | -6% | +2% | +4% | -6% | — |
| Net Income | 244.1 | 239.9 | -133.7 | -36.2 | 107.0 | 299.6 | 287.9 | 223.4 | 186.4 | 257.4 | 218.2 | 165.7 |
| Net Margin | 12.84% | 12.83% | -8.26% | -1.71% | 5.84% | 14.62% | 14.92% | 14.10% | 11.11% | 15.64% | 13.84% | 9.91% |
Drivers of IDP's profit
Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to higher selling expenses. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by lower selling expenses. Supporting and offsetting drivers:
Financial Highlights
Detailed analysis of each financial dimension
ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier
ROE fell from 29.3% to 9.2% — asset turnover weakened the most, though leverage still provided support.
Is the profit sustainable?
Margins narrowed but earnings quality remains clean — pressure is mainly operational.
What is driving the margin?
Net margin fell to 4.19%, losing 8.2pp. The main pressure comes from SG&A / Revenue rose 6.3pp and Gross margin fell 3.4pp (in addition, Other profit / Revenue rose 0.0pp added support while Net financial result / Revenue fell 0.9pp remained a drag).
The pressure comes from core operations — this is a concerning type of decline, not a one-off movement.
Profitability trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is capital being used efficiently?
Capital efficiency is declining — check whether the drag is from margins or turnover.
Is capital being deployed efficiently?
ROIC fell to 5.19%, losing 14.6pp. That translates to 5.19 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 8.2pp and capital turnover fell 0.36x, while invested capital expanded strongly by 1,411bn — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.
Pressure came from the margin side — core operations are weakening, not just a temporary asset-management issue.
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Balance Sheet
ROIC declined — the balance sheet shows how capital is being deployed. Capital structure is balanced — liabilities at 1.19x equity, net debt at 0.79x equity.
Over the last 12 months, working capital released 315.6bn of cash, mainly thanks to lower receivables and lower inventories. Pressure from lower payables only partly offset that benefit.
Working Capital Drivers
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Working Capital Efficiency
The inventory build-up noted above is reflected in a longer cash cycle. Cash conversion cycle lengthened by 9.6 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 3.2 days, DSO rose 1.0 days, and DPO fell 5.4 days.
All 3 drivers are deteriorating — working capital is becoming more deeply tied up in the operating cycle.
Watchpoints
CCC is up by +9.6 days, indicating weaker working-capital turnover versus the prior year.
DSO increased by +1.0 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.
Working Capital Efficiency
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Is financial risk significant?
Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 262.5bn due to capex of 1,237.9bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.
Leverage & Liquidity
Leverage is balanced for now, with net debt / equity at 0.79x and interest coverage at 2.57x.
At present, short-term debt accounts for 58.2% of total debt, cash equals 2.5% of debt, and total debt stands at 2,903.5bn.
Watchpoints
Cash / debt stands at 2.5%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.
Leverage and liquidity trend
TTM YoY · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Cash Flow
With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 308.6bn in 2025, against investing cash flow of -836.3bn.
Post-investment cash flow was negative +527.7bn. Financing cash flow was positive +325.1bn.
CFO / net income was 3.12x.
After spending +1,237.9bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −262.5bn.
Cash Conversion
TTM Cash Conversion · 2025Q1 -> 2026Q1
Investment Takeaway
The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. The brighter spot is earnings conversion is confirmed, with CFO/NI at 3.12x. The main risk still sits in core profitability, with net margin down 8.2 pp.
Improvement: earnings conversion looks more confirmed, with CFO / net income at 3.12x.
Key risk: profitability remains under pressure, with trailing-12M net margin at 4.19% after a 8.2pp decline versus the same period last year.
Statement Data
| Item | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Revenue
|
7,432.6 | 7,658.2 | 6,654.7 | 6,086.5 | 4,827.1 |
|
Cost of Goods Sold
|
4,709.6 | 4,533.2 | 3,948.1 | 3,723.5 | 0.0 |
|
Gross Profit
|
2,723.1 | 3,125.0 | 2,706.6 | 2,363.0 | 2,083.1 |
|
Financial Expenses
|
142.6 | 62.4 | 59.2 | 57.3 | -27.2 |
|
Selling Expenses
|
2,197.4 | 1,884.2 | 1,450.8 | 1,281.9 | -989.2 |
|
General and Administrative Expenses
|
327.9 | 249.7 | 177.4 | 134.3 | -102.6 |
|
Operating Profit
|
228.2 | 1,105.1 | 1,165.4 | 990.8 | 1,038.4 |
|
Profit Before Tax
|
245.5 | 1,108.4 | 1,152.4 | 990.1 | 1,041.6 |
|
Net Income
|
177.2 | 875.3 | 924.4 | 810.5 | 822.8 |
|
Profit Attributable to Parent
|
175.3 | 875.3 | 924.4 | 810.5 | 822.8 |
|
Earnings per Share
|
2,836.00 | 14,183.00 | 15,465.00 | 13,750.00 | 13,958.84 |
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