TS4

Thủy sản Số 4 ·UPCOM ·2024Q4

▲ Showing improvement

Operating efficiency is improving Net margin −54.30%, +643.18pp YoY
Price
Latest close
P/E
P/B
EPS -268
BVPS -32,084
ROE 0.8%
ROA -1.5%
Profit Margin -54.3%
Asset Turnover 0.03x
Equity Mult. -0.57x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2024Q4 basis, TS4 posted a sharp profit increase versus the same period, suggesting a clear improvement from a low base — profit is at an all-time high. However, operating cash flow is significantly negative relative to profit — this needs monitoring in coming periods.

TTM REVENUE
VND 8bn
−90.3%YoY
NET MARGIN
−54.30%
+643.2ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
−VND 4bn
+99.2%YoY
CFO / Net Income
-0.76x
negative cash flow vs profit
Metric Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23 Q1'23 Q4'22 Q3'22 Q2'22 Q1'22
Revenue 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.7 0.2 6.7 21.0 53.8 1.4 14.5 9.3 4.7
Growth -21% -1% +33% +672% -97% -68% -61% +3670% -90% +56% +97%
Net Income -2.6 0.8 -1.9 -0.7 -1.9 -2.6 0.1 -565.6 -1.7 -8.0 -3.2 -0.2
Net Margin -145.77% 34.57% -83.15% -38.47% -848.40% -39.34% 0.58% -1051.13% -115.66% -55.44% -33.93% -3.61%

Drivers of TS4's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs last year, mainly helped by higher gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↑ 564.3bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs prior quarter, mainly due to lower gross profit. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Gross profit ↓ 0.5bn
Administrative expenses ↑ 0.3bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2023Q4 248.5% = -697.5% × 0.14 × -2.63
2024Q4 0.8% = -54.3% × 0.03 × -0.57

ROE fell from 248.5% to 0.8% — asset turnover weakened the most, though net margin and leverage still provided support.

Net margin: -54.3% +643.2pp Asset turnover: 0.03x -0.11x Leverage: -0.57x +2.06x

Is the profit sustainable?

Accounting profit is positive but operating cash flow has not caught up — needs more time to confirm.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin expanded to -54.30%, rising 643.2pp. Core operating signals are improving as Gross margin rose 701.8pp are enough to offset pressure from SG&A / Revenue rose 44.2pp (with lingering pressure from Net financial result / Revenue fell 13.8pp and Other profit / Revenue fell 0.7pp).

The improvement comes from core operations — this is a high-quality margin expansion.

Profitability trend

Net Margin -54.30% +643.2pp
Gross Margin 12.60% +701.8pp
SG&A / Revenue 51.58% +44.2pp

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital is being used more efficiently — ROIC rose and cash cycle shortened to -1441.2 days.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC expanded to -31.17%, rising 144.4pp. That translates to -31.17 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin rose 643.9pp and capital turnover rose 0.33x, while invested capital contracted by 311bn — capital-return quality improved from both sides.

Both margin and turnover contributed — the improvement has a dual foundation, but with ROIC still at a low level, several more periods in the same direction are needed to confirm a substantive shift.

Watchpoints

ROIC remains low

ROIC is currently -31.17% — below the typical cost-of-capital threshold; worth tracking whether upcoming periods can rise above this level.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

ROIC -31.17% +144.4pp
NOPAT Margin -53.50% +643.9pp
Capital Turnover 0.58x +0.33x
Average Invested Capital 13.6bn −310.9bn

Balance Sheet

ROIC is improving — the asset structure below shows how capital is being allocated. Balance sheet is exceptionally sound — liabilities at -1.56x equity, with a net cash position equivalent to 1.02x equity.

Inventory ended the period at 75.2bn, roughly 26.0% of total assets.

Over the last 12 months, working capital released 3.5bn of cash, mainly thanks to higher payables. Pressure from higher receivables and higher inventories only partly offset that benefit.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Receivables increased → lower CFO: −0.9bn
Inventories increased → lower CFO: −4.2bn
Payables increased → higher CFO: +8.7bn

Working Capital Efficiency

Working capital is being managed more efficiently, supporting overall capital efficiency. Cash conversion cycle improved by 1843.1 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 3640.4 days, DSO rose 2584.4 days, and DPO rose 8067.9 days.

Extended payment timing is the main driver — consider whether this trades off supplier relationships.

Watchpoints

Receivables collection is slowing

DSO increased by +2584.4 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.

Inventory turnover is slowing

DIO increased by +3640.4 days, suggesting more capital is being tied up in inventories.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Receivables 2862.1 days +2584.4 days
Inventory 3852.6 days +3640.4 days
Payables 8155.9 days +8067.9 days
Cash Conversion Cycle -1441.2 days −1843.1 days

Is financial risk significant?

Financial risk is low — the company has net cash and CFO reached 3.2bn.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at -1.02x and interest coverage only at -3.36x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 92.9% of total debt, cash equals 0.1% of debt, and total debt stands at 528.9bn.

Watchpoints

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is -3.36x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Short-term refinancing pressure is meaningful

Short-term debt accounts for 92.9% of total debt, raising near-term refinancing needs.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity -1.02x +0.01x
Interest Coverage -3.36x +707.01x
Cash / Debt 0.1% −0.0pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 92.9% +0.4pp
CFO / NI -0.76x −0.67x

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Cash Flow

With safe leverage noted above, cash flow below shows the self-funding capacity. Operating cash flow reached 3.2bn in 2024, against investing cash flow of -1.2bn.

Post-investment cash flow was positive +2.1bn. Financing cash flow was negative +2.3bn.

CFO / net income was -0.76x.

After spending 0.0bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of +3.2bn.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

CFO TTM 3.2bn −44.3bn
Cash Capex 0.0bn −1.5bn
FCF TTM +3.2bn −42.8bn

Investment Takeaway

The business is heading the right way, but the current picture is still at partial confirmation — not yet a fully clean case. The positive points have clearly improved, showing the operating base is better than before. The brighter spot is operating efficiency, with net margin improving 643.2 pp. The next item to monitor is the earnings mix, when non-core contribution is 26.7%. The main risk still sits in capital efficiency remains weak, with ROIC at -31.2%.

Improvement: operating efficiency is getting better, with trailing-12M net margin at -54.30% after expanding 643.2pp versus the same period last year.

Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for 26.7% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at -0.76x.

Key risk: Capital efficiency remains weak.

Statement Data

Item 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020
Net Revenue
7.9 81.7 30.0 87.9 388.6
Cost of Goods Sold
6.9 645.0 18.5 0.0 0.0
Gross Profit
1.0 -563.3 11.5 -15.5 -34.6
Financial Expenses
1.3 0.8 19.0 -0.0 -33.8
Selling Expenses
0.0 2.5 2.6 -2.7 -10.2
General and Administrative Expenses
4.1 3.5 2.9 -3.7 -7.2
Operating Profit
-4.2 -569.9 -12.9 -21.7 -83.4
Profit Before Tax
-4.3 -569.9 -12.9 -21.7 -95.6
Net Income
-4.3 -569.9 -12.9 -21.7 -96.3
Profit Attributable to Parent
-4.3 -569.9 -12.9 -21.7 -96.3
Earnings per Share
-268.00 -35,505.00 -799.17 -1,267.33 -5,984.00

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