TCD

Tập đoàn Xây dựng TRACODI ·HOSE ·2024Q4

▼▼ Declining sharply

Leverage and liquidity require close discipline Debt/equity 0.46x
Price
Latest close
P/E
P/B
EPS 240
BVPS 11,520
ROE 1.9%
ROA 0.8%
Profit Margin 6.1%
Asset Turnover 0.13x
Equity Mult. 2.41x

TTM · Applied to: EPS, ROE, ROA, Net Margin, Asset Turnover, Debt/Equity

What Is Changing

On a TTM 2024Q4 basis, TCD posted a clear revenue decline, but margins have not been hit proportionally yet — profit is at an all-time high. More notably, profit is significantly supported by non-core sources and operating cash flow is not yet positive — the earnings quality picture needs close monitoring.

TTM REVENUE
VND 1,160bn
−35.0%YoY
NET MARGIN
9.62%
+0.2ppYoY
TTM NET PROFIT
VND 112bn
−33.8%YoY
Net financial result / PBT
33.5%
affects earnings quality
Metric Q4'24 Q3'24 Q2'24 Q1'24 Q4'23 Q3'23 Q2'23 Q1'23 Q4'22 Q3'22 Q2'22 Q1'22
Revenue 261.8 213.3 444.1 240.5 625.7 353.8 490.9 314.0 1,043.3 683.2 693.3 525.1
Growth +23% -52% +85% -62% +77% -28% +56% -70% +53% -1% +32%
Net Income 35.3 21.9 24.0 30.3 17.0 58.2 24.3 69.0 -71.8 42.4 283.3 111.2
Net Margin 13.49% 10.25% 5.41% 12.61% 2.72% 16.44% 4.94% 21.96% -6.89% 6.21% 40.86% 21.18%

Drivers of TCD's profit

TTM

Net profit attributable to parent declined vs last year, mainly due to lower financial income. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Finance costs ↓ 88.0bn
Other profit ↑ 21.0bn
Administrative expenses ↓ 19.3bn
Selling expenses ↓ 19.0bn
Financial income ↓ 163.0bn
Gross profit ↓ 76.8bn
TTM

Net profit attributable to parent increased vs prior quarter, mainly helped by higher associates income. Supporting and offsetting drivers:

Associates income ↑ 19.9bn
Other profit ↑ 15.0bn
Administrative expenses ↓ 14.6bn
Financial income ↑ 12.9bn
Gross profit ↓ 60.4bn

Financial Highlights

Detailed analysis of each financial dimension

ROE = Profit Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

2023Q4 4.5% = 9.4% × 0.19 × 2.56
2024Q4 2.9% = 9.6% × 0.13 × 2.41

ROE fell from 4.5% to 2.9% — leverage weakened the most, though net margin still provided support.

Net margin: 9.6% +0.2pp Asset turnover: 0.13x -0.06x Leverage: 2.41x -0.15x

Is the profit sustainable?

Accounting profit is positive but operating cash flow has not caught up — needs more time to confirm.

very positive positive stable watch under pressure

What is driving the margin?

Net margin stands at 9.62%, broadly flat versus the same period. Supportive factors and pressure points are offsetting one another.

Margin is nearly flat but the underlying components are moving — this is a transitional phase, more time is needed to see the real trend.

Profitability trend

Net Margin 9.62% +0.2pp
Gross Margin 20.46% +2.9pp
SG&A / Revenue 16.53% +3.6pp
Non-core / Revenue 6.63% −0.7pp

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Watchpoints

Financial result share remains high

Even though contribution decreased by 0.7pp, financial result still accounts for 55.1% of PBT — earnings durability should be monitored in coming periods.

Is capital being used efficiently?

Capital efficiency for construction contractors should be read alongside project progress and receivables collection from developers — ROIC of 1.5% fluctuates with handover cycles.

Is capital being deployed efficiently?

ROIC narrowed to 1.53%, falling 1.2pp. That translates to 1.53 in after-tax operating profit for every 100 units of operating capital. Both NOPAT margin narrowed 1.5pp and capital turnover fell 0.10x, with invested capital holding roughly steady — pressure came from both operational efficiency and asset efficiency.

For construction contractors, ROIC moves with backlog and project acceptance timing — this is a reference signal and should be read alongside working-capital cycles.

CAPITAL EFFICIENCY TREND

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

ROIC 1.53% −1.2pp
NOPAT Margin 7.53% −1.5pp
Capital Turnover 0.20x −0.10x
Average Invested Capital 5,694.4bn −144.0bn

Balance Sheet

ROIC for construction contractors swings with project progress and handover cycles — the balance sheet below adds perspective. Capital structure is relatively light for construction contractors — liabilities at 1.40x equity, net debt at 0.50x equity.

Over the last 12 months, working capital absorbed 288.9bn of cash, mainly because of higher receivables and higher inventories.

Working Capital Drivers

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Receivables increased → lower CFO: −164.6bn
Inventories increased → lower CFO: −99.4bn
Payables decreased → lower CFO: −24.9bn

Working Capital Efficiency

Cash conversion cycle lengthened by 55.6 days versus the same period last year. The main moves came from DIO rose 100.8 days, DSO rose 45.1 days, and DPO rose 90.4 days.

Working capital cycle lengthened mainly due to slower inventory turnover — more capital is being tied up in inventory.

For construction contractors, DSO/DIO/DPO/CCC can be distorted by project progress, work-in-progress receivables, and milestone acceptance timing — these metrics should be read alongside developer payment cycles.

Watchpoints

Cash conversion cycle remains stretched

CCC stands at 230.4 days, suggesting that working capital remains tied up for a relatively long operating cycle.

Receivables collection is slowing

DSO increased by +45.1 days, pointing to slower receivables turnover.

Working Capital Efficiency

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Receivables 296.9 days +45.1 days
Inventory 220.8 days +100.8 days
Payables 287.4 days +90.4 days
Cash Conversion Cycle 230.4 days +55.6 days

Is financial risk significant?

Leverage is safe but FCF is negative at 248.2bn due to capex of 0.9bn — an investment choice, not an urgent risk.

Leverage & Liquidity

Leverage warrants monitoring, with net debt / equity at 0.50x and interest coverage only at 0.46x.

At present, short-term debt accounts for 44.1% of total debt, cash equals 3.9% of debt, and total debt stands at 2,020.9bn.

Leverage for construction contractors fluctuates with project working capital, performance guarantees, and progress receivables — should be read alongside receivables quality and developer payment cycles.

Watchpoints

Interest coverage is thin

Interest coverage is 0.46x, leaving limited room to absorb financing costs.

Cash buffer is thin relative to debt

Cash / debt stands at 3.9%, leaving limited liquidity buffer to monitor.

Leverage and liquidity trend

Net Debt / Equity 0.50x +0.03x
Interest Coverage 0.46x −0.17x
Cash / Debt 3.9% −10.4pp
Short-term Debt / Total Debt 44.1% +7.6pp
CFO / NI -3.47x −6.89x

TTM YoY · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow reached -247.3bn in 2024, against investing cash flow of 119.1bn.

Post-investment cash flow was negative +128.3bn. Financing cash flow was negative +92.8bn.

CFO / net income was -3.47x.

After spending +0.9bn on fixed-asset investment, the business generated trailing free cash flow of −248.2bn.

For construction contractors, FCF swings sharply with project progress and payment cycles — should be read alongside backlog and receivables quality.

Cash Conversion

TTM Cash Conversion · 2023Q4 -> 2024Q4

CFO TTM 247.3bn −659.9bn
Cash Capex 0.9bn −4.1bn
FCF TTM −248.2bn −655.8bn

Investment Takeaway

The business is showing a few weaker signals, but the current magnitude is not yet clear enough to conclude that this is a broader weakening phase. Even so, earnings quality still needs closer monitoring because net financial result remains elevated. The main risk still sits in leverage and liquidity, with interest coverage at 0.46x.

Watchpoint: the earnings mix still needs monitoring, with net financial result still accounting for 33.5% of PBT and CFO / net income currently at -3.47x.

Key risk: leverage and liquidity still require discipline, with interest coverage only at 0.46x.

Statement Data

Item 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020
Net Revenue
1,159.7 1,784.5 2,944.8 3,111.8 2,852.6
Cost of Goods Sold
922.5 1,458.9 2,560.7 0.0 0.0
Gross Profit
237.3 325.6 384.1 380.3 373.0
Financial Expenses
238.3 328.1 342.8 -299.1 -172.8
Selling Expenses
63.7 82.7 92.0 -70.0 -108.8
General and Administrative Expenses
128.0 147.3 146.9 -130.7 -117.9
Operating Profit
109.2 215.0 402.2 378.2 178.9
Profit Before Tax
139.5 223.5 405.3 379.8 175.4
Net Income
111.4 175.4 333.9 342.4 143.8
Profit Attributable to Parent
71.1 122.5 299.9 315.0 120.0
Earnings per Share
231.00 461.00 1,417.00 3,938.00 2,602.00

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